[bluGill]

The people who make the money in gold rushes sold shovels, not mined the gold. Sure some random people found gold and made a lot of money, but many others didn't strike it rich.

As such even if there is a lot of money AI will make, it can still be the right decision to sell tools to others who will figure out how to use it. And of course if it turns out another pointless fad with no real value you still make money. (I'd predict the answer is in between - we are not going to get some AGI that takes over the world, but there will be niches where it is a big help and those niches will be worth selling tools into)

[convolvatron]

its so good that people seem to automatically exclude the middle. its either the arrival of the singularity or complete fakery. I think you've expressed the most likely outcome by far - that there will be some really interesting tools and use cases, and some things will be changed forever - but very unlikely that _everything_ will

[mathgeek]

> The people who make the money in gold rushes sold shovels, not mined the gold. Sure some random people found gold and made a lot of money, but many others didn't strike it rich.

Another important group to remember is those who owned the infrastructure necessary for the prospectors to survive. The folks who owned (or strong-armed their way into) the services around housing, food, alcohol, etc. made off like bandits.