[globnomulous]

Music is actually a terrific counterexample to your point. It perfectly demonstrates the culturally and artistically destructive power of the steady march of progress in computer technology -- which really has led to fewer drummers.

Far fewer people make their living as musicians than did even thirty years ago, and being a musician is no longer a viable middle-class career. Jaron Lanier, who has written on this, has argued that it's the direct result of the advent of the internet, music piracy, and streaming -- two of which originally were expected or promised to provide more opportunities for artists, not take them away.

So there really are far fewer drummers, and fewer, worse opportunities for those who remain, than there were within the living memory of even most HN users, not because some specific musical technology advanced but because technological advancement provided an easier, cheaper alternative to human labor.

Sound familiar yet?

[dingnuts]

> which really has led to fewer drummers.

what's your basis for this claim? please provide some data showing number of drummers over time, or at least musicians, over the last fifty years or so. I tried searching and couldn't find anything but you're so confident, I'm sure you have a source you could link

[globnomulous]

Sure, here's a blog post that cites BLS statistics showing a 45% decline in the number of working musicians in the US just between 2002 and 2012: https://thetrichordist.com/2013/05/21/45-fewer-professional-...

[jchanimal]

I’m one of those statistics. But I still play. It’s fun to imagine myself with a full time studio career but instead I’m a database startup founder. (I got into databases by building a web crawler to recommend how musicians could promote themselves on mp3 blogs.)

How many musicians or artists are finding their need to explore similarly met by opportunities that simply didn’t exist in 2002? If art is expression than we should expect the people who might have wielded a brush or guitar to be building software instead.

If this is you, I recommend Rick Rubin’s The Creative Act. It’s as pure an expression of the way I like to work in music, as it is aligned with how I think about code and product design.

[johnnyanmac]

>How many musicians or artists are finding their need to explore similarly met by opportunities that simply didn’t exist in 2002?

Given the current job market: very few. They didn't become SWE founders, they were thrown into dead end jobs as a means to survive. At best, maybe they became music teachers to try and keep the spark alive.

The survivor's bias is pretty strong here.

>If art is expression than we should expect the people who might have wielded a brush or guitar to be building software instead.

everyone expresses differently. Too bad that not all expressions lead to a career that sustains oneself. If you really believe AI will take over programmming, what's the next frontier after building software?

Secondly, most software is product, not art. Most people aren't going to feel like they are expressing anything as they pump out CRUD widgets. That's just modern day pencil pushing.

[johnnyanmac]

Gotta love being so confrontational about wanting a source and then never responding when provided one.

[satyrun]

I know the writings of Jaron on this and I think he is mostly wrong.

What he is comparing was a brief time in history that the music industry was at the absolute peak.

We have just gone back to normal that most people can't make money being a musician just like being an actor is not really a viable middle class career option.

Sure, when I graduated high school you could have just made a living in a local rock band because everyone wanted to be in a band to be the next Guns n Roses.

To me, it is like how even Hitler wanted to be a painter because everyone wanted to be a painter at that time. The way everyone wanted to be a rock star when i was a teenager.

Times change and the collective artistic taste change with them. So many musicians are doing better than ever before because of youtube too.

I play the baroque lute and I can tell you that it is much tougher to get a gig in a bar today than it was in 1650 in France.

The best lutenist though are killing it on youtube with Bach videos.

[globnomulous]

> What he is comparing was a brief time in history that the music industry was at the absolute peak.

Could you provide data defending this claim? Without it, and even with it, all I see in your comment is that you're begging the question or shrugging your shoulders at the data and saying, "so what," not actually or substantively disagreeing with anything Lanier has said or written.

What caused the decline? You seem very sure you know the answer, and yet your answer basically seems to be to stop asking the question or investigating: "music was at its peak, so obviously it declined." If music was at some absolute peak, why was that? "It was at its peak" isn't an answer. It's a restatement of the question.

And can you show me that there were fewer musicians per capita, making less money in adjusted terms, twenty or thirty years earlier?

And do you have any data showing that more than a tiny, miniscule fraction of musicians are doing "better than ever before" thanks specifically to YouTube? "So many" is slippery and frustratingly difficult to quantify in a manner that lets me evaluate its accuracy.

[johnnyanmac]

>We have just gone back to normal that most people can't make money being a musician just like being an actor is not really a viable middle class career option.

And we want to normalize that? We can also go back to the times were 8 YO's worked in teh mines and humans worked 7 days a week for 12+ hours.

>The way everyone wanted to be a rock star when i was a teenager.

Everyone wanted to be an astronaut growing up at one point too. That trend faded... but it turns out astronauts can get a living wage. Or at least, I sure hope so.