Please don't respond to grand pronouncements about a nation or continent with one of your own. This just perpetuates the kind of flamewar we're trying to avoid here, and thus counts as flamebait, which is explicitly against the guidelines:
You being down-voted is more testament to the orientation of thinking clouding judgment here in HN. Ukraine losing the war will be a massive blow for Europe. Sibling commentator mentioned doubling of the military budget but this disregard readiness of engagement and unity[1]. Nato was the creation of the US and the US pulling out requires, probably, another entity with committed members.
>Ukraine losing the war will be a massive blow for Europe
There is no such thing. Even if Ukraine cannot recapture all of the lost territory, it's Russia who has already lost. That a country four times the population, ten times as rich has incurred a million casualties, switched to a war economy, has to throw tens of thousand of North Koreans into a war in Europe, merely to creep forward by a few meters has to be the largest humiliation to an alleged "great power" in a century.
All of this while Europe has not even remilitarized, with Ukraine becoming a major producer of military technology in its own right, the country is now largely self sufficient in terms of its drone output among other things, is one of the strongest signs of resilience of this continent.
That a Ukraine loss is seen as the end of a free Europe (because Russia wouldn't stop at least until at least DDR Germany borders), is why the other European nations are collectively increasing military spending.
So if (when) American support disappears, I expect Russia to continue to not go anywhere fast while wasting a lot of lives in the process. I also expect this to surprise Putin, as he thinks Russia is a Great Power and therefore can only be stalling if Ukraine is supported by another Great Power and doesn't recognise that (1) Russia isn't, and (2) the EU kinda is, sort of, when it feels like acting with unity rather than as 27 different nations.
The sole reason Germany annexed Czechoslovakia was was that there were atrocities being committed against the Sudeten[0].
He even made a speech at the Sportpalast in Berlin in which he stated that the Sudetenland was "the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe". So all's fine, and we don't have to worry about Germany.
One big difference, is that the opposition to nazi Germany was relatively weak before the start of WW2:
After Reginald Drax's mission to Moscow failed, the Soviet Union ended up signing its famous non-aggression pact.
Italy was allied, Spain was neutral/aligned. Turkiye was neutral.
Poland could only count on UK and France[0].
Compare to now, where the NATO military bloc is massive. No one would dare risking a military confrontation in these circumstances.
If anything, when there are any tensions between two non-NATO countries, it makes it more urgent for one to oppose the other joining NATO (attacking before they'd join NATO would stave off them joining, attacking after they'd join NATO would lead to an unwinnable fight).
The article you cite says nothing about the /alleged/ [by Hitler as a pretext for annexation] atrocities against Sudeten Germans. The expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia _after_ World War II was an ugly chapter, but really -- there were no 'atrocities' being committed against that population /before/ the war. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudeten_German_uprising
Sorry if it wasn't obvious, my reply was meant as an analogy. The parent comment said "The sole reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that it was flirting too much with NATO."
So I wanted to show that people have also used cheap excuses like this in the past, and that we shouldn't give Russian propaganda the benefit of the doubt.
Of course there weren't any atrocities commited against the Sudetendeutsche population, I just assumed everyone knew that, but that's due to my German-centric view of history.
I should have expected this, as sarcasm doesn't translate well over text, especially if people don't share the same cultural background.
If we are to be completely rational, what made no sense was Ukraine thinking it could be a part of NATO, or independent. It is the sad reality of existing next to a superpower. You cannot be independent. It would either be heavily influenced by Russia, or the option B they chose: in rubble.
Russia stopped being a superpower with the fall of the USSR. And before anyone says so, "has a permanent seat on UN security council" doesn't count, the UK and France also have that status and even combined were no longer superpowers by the time of the Suez crisis. Likewise "has nukes" is not sufficient.
The EU is closer to being one than Russia is today, and even then the EU is only kinda a bit of one in some measures but not all.
What of those two options did Finland choose? In reality Russia shares a land border with 14 countries, 6 of which are already NATO members (of the others the second largest border is with China). And the countries they have only a maritime border with are Japan and the USA.
The sad reality is that your logic is just a twisted pretzel to support the position you wish to take which is you support Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
This line of reasoning is exactly why everyone bordering Russia is preparing for an invasion, and why no one deludes themselves with "Mr. Hitler will surely stop at Poland." It's not about NATO, ethnic Russians, or any other common excuse, but a fundamental collision between an imperialistic view of the world (represented by Putin's dictatorship) and a cooperative one (represented by the EU). Nations are naturally drawn to the EU, which does not force them to live under someone's boot, and Putin tries to stop that through raw violence.
.. which has had the effect of forcing formerly neutral Finland, which shares a border with Russia, to join NATO.
The claim that Russia has a right to dictate the alliances of other countries simply because they border it is ludicrous and violates international law.
(Simo Häyhä had something to say about last time Russia invaded Finland)
> The sole reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that it was flirting too much with NATO.
Which was only a problem for Putin because Putin's world view is that Great Powers (such as Russia, in his mind) should have a sphere of influence, whereas most everyone else thinks Ukraine is a sovereign nation who has the right to decide for itself which treaties it does or doesn't belong to.
Even then, more like begging than flirting; the invasion made it much more likely. Likewise EU membership.
Putin (et al.) has already proven to be stupid : the invasion of Ukraine was going quite well for him since 2014, he could have continued salami slicing it while the EU was still mostly asleep (and not willing to make a fuss as a Russian hydrocarbons importer).
But no, he went for a 'quick' victory instead, and ended up bogged in a much higher intensity war, made the Russian military a laughing stock, and kicked the EU/Nato bees nest so hard that another 2 countries immediately joined NATO.
How do you picture this? People in Paris disappear with a flash of light and baguettes falling on the ground? Or is ot more like the earth shakes and it all goes under the water? Or maybe something like Europeans collectively decide to do whatever Putin tells them? Or maybe suddenly adopt American and Russian way of life, like Italians burn their Fiat 500's and order Ford F-150's, throw away their wines and start brewing votka? Or maybe turn against each other and break down their functioning trade and cultural relations and just buy Russian and American stuff instead and pay with what?
BTW the blaming immigrants and tearing down the social state doesn't work for long because you have finite number of immigrants and social services. If you actually get rid of those and things don't improve people start to notice. A common strategy is to keep blaming those when not doing anything about it or even increase it but the problem with that is, people get tired and actually change you with someone who actually will do something about it and you end up doing something. This something can be to fix the issues and remove the pressure or remove the immigrants and the social sistem and you get a very strong counter action and flushes away those who did it. However way it goes it's not an end or beginning of anything as EU isn't an empire like the US, just bunch of sovereign states in coordination.
"End of Europe" as a coherent entity that's willing and able to look after its own interests. Even as Ukrainians die in the meat grinder and Germany is lauded as Ukraine's best friend in Europe, millions of dollars of dual-use technology products from Germany continue to transship into Russia via Kazakhstan. Imagine if it was 1942 and Britain was still shipping millions of dollars of weapons components into Germany via Sweden or Switzerland?
Europe is far from coherent, even if it is the most coherent that ever has been.
Meanwhile, support rate for EU and Eurozone is highest ever among EU member states and Europe as a whole. If anything, people are annoyed that EU struggles to be decisive as Europeans want more EU, not less. This new situation even paved the way for collaboration previously thought to be far fetched dream.
I don't know how all this will unfold but if tonight Europe ends as we know it, tomorrow we will have European federation and the discussions won't be about the petty local issues but thinks like EU army etc. as all Europeans are very annoyed by Russia, USA and the current state of affairs in Europe.
Check the stats, Europeans don't buy into the agenda pushed by the American libertarians. People want bigger stronger EU to take over where USA abandoned.
>If anything, people are annoyed that EU struggles to be decisive as Europeans want more EU, not less.
Here's an idea... how about a "United States of Europe"... could even have an "electoral college" where Europeans come together to elect a decisive "President" type leader... ;-)
>"End of Europe" as a coherent entity that's willing and able to look after its own interests.
Europe doesn't have coherent interests across the board but every country acts purely in its own interest even if it's at the expense of the other member states. EU is an org that replaced the battlefield so Europeans don't have another world war with each other but instead backstab themselves tough politics in the EU parlaiment.
See the illegal immigration issue that still hasn't been solved since 2015 and instead of solving it, they just ban anti-illegal-immigration right wing candidates or parties from being allowed to take part in elections and pretend the issue went away.
>Imagine if it was 1942 and Britain was still shipping millions of dollars of weapons components into Germany via Sweden or Switzerland?
1) Britain was at war directly with Germany in 1942, but Germany is not fighting Russia, Ukraine is, as the proxy, so German corporations can afford to profit form this war as the government looks away. Big difference. There's Realpolitik and then there's idealistic fantasy.
2) Britain could afford to declare war on Germany because Germany didn't have nukes, while now Russia has nukes and Germany doesn't. Even "better", Germany made its economy dependent on Russian gas. Britain didn't have its economy dependent on resources imported from Germany. Huge differences that make such comparisons not even in the same ballpark.
> Europe will increasingly be ran by right-wing autocrats shredding the social state and blaming immigrants.
This does not:
> Ukraine losing the war will be the end of Europe
Both the question of losing (the war is somewhat stalemated, and Europe itself is rearming .. although still not breaking dependency on Russian gas!) and the idea that this will somehow "end Europe". If anything, Brexit pretty much demolished similar movements across the EU. The EU's squishyness is mistaken for weakness by too many people who are fans of "muscular" rhetoric.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html