[simondotau]

Anyone investing in Tesla at its current stock price is not doing so because of the success (or otherwise) of its automotive business. It’s a long-term gamble on autonomy solutions. The company would be worth 10 times more if they pull it off, but I give it a 10% chance of succeeding

[7e]

Waymo is way ahead of them. I give them a 1% chance.

[simondotau]

It is true that Waymo are currently ahead. Waymo's fleet is presently 1,500 vehicles with future plans for an additional 2,000 vehicles.

Tesla's robotaxi solution uses a near-stock Model Y. Tesla has the manufacturing capacity to produce over 5,800 Model Y vehicles per day.

I give them a greater than 1% chance.

[SR2Z]

Waymo doesn't need to produce a million cars. They need to dominate rideshare in the top 10 US cities, which gives them 90% of the ridehailing market. Then they license their technology into long-haul trucking, then eventually personal cars (with a subscription fee, obviously) to starve out their competitors.

Even 20k cars in one city is likely too many for them.