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by bilbo0s 346 days ago
You would think people like HN User corimaith would have learned from the ISS fiasco.

I've gotten to the point where I no longer even listen to people who underestimate the Chinese. Whatever points they're making can be safely ignored. Indeed, strategic sense demands we ignore them. The time for underestimating the Chinese is long past. That's not the reality we live in any longer.
1 comments
corimaith 346 days ago
On the contrary, the use of sanctions precisely recognizes the Chinese ability to innovate and the need to not give them our technology on a silver plate while they are it. Tens, if not hundreds of billions are already being funded into the chip industry's r&d and bringing manufacturing back home.
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randomNumber7 346 days ago
While I agree somehow I think the time to do this (sanctions) was the time where we actually delivered them our technology.

Now it is more like throwing pebbles at someone who is stronger while hoping he doesn't come over to punch back.

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corimaith 346 days ago
"Against the power of Mordor there can be no victory. We must join with him, Gandalf. We must join with Sauron. It would be wise, my friend."

I've seen this argument before with some pro-China voices and it's the same circular reasoning in arguments like Roko's Basilisk. It is is futile and unwise to oppose China's ascent at the risk of incurring their future wrath when said rise is inveitable, better that we pledge loyalty now for future favours". It's nothing more than intimidation.

The difference is that future of China's hegemony is far from inevitable. They are strong, but they're not stronger just yet. Their innovation hasn't really broken through in red oceans when paired against competive incumbents, and they are just as prone to hype bubbles as we are. And their massive investment is coming at the cost of a resulting maligned consumption balance and destructive price wars. So there still moves to be made that can radically alter the trajectory of events.

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randomNumber7 345 days ago
I always liked Saruman as a character btw^^

Which argument is right really depends on a realistic evaluation of the situation.

To me I just have a bad gut feeling when we (the west) force China to oppose us.

I also had a bad gut feeling when we outsourced our technology there. We let the buy our companies while China only allowed joint ventures with state controlled companies.

Why didn't we pick up the fight 10 years earlier if they are so evil that we cannot let them win?

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