[alphazard]

> Rule of thumb: every 10% increase in complexity cuts your potential user base in half.

I agree this is an accurate rule of thumb. However if the complexity lets users achieve more, then the complexity can earn its keep. Using version control is so beneficial that software engineers deal with the complexity. The ability to maintain a more complicated model in one's head and use it to produce more value is not something that all users are able to do. More sophisticated users can afford to use more complicated tools.

However the sophisticated users are reigned in by network effects. If you want to work with people then everyone needs to be able to deal with the complexity. Programmers are more sophisticated than most office workers, which is why we ubiquitously version codebases, and not so much spreadsheets.

> This is why systems like hypercard and git are not mainstream and never will be.

We are moving towards a world where fewer humans are needed, and the humans that are needed are the most sophisticated operators in their respective domains. This means less network effects, less unsophisticated user drag holding back the tooling. The worst drop off and the population average increases.

I would not be surprised to see an understanding of version control and other sophisticated concepts become common place among the humans that still do knowledge work in the next few years.

[esafak]

Google has a version history for documents. Microsoft has it too now. I don't know introduced it first?