[twoodfin]

This stuff is ridiculously important for healthcare: It’s a demographic fact that both the US and the world at large are simply not training enough doctors and nurses to provide today’s standard of care at current staffing levels as the population ages.

We need massive productivity boosts in medicine just as fast as we can get them.

[hn_throwaway_99]

I sincerely doubt this understaffing of medical professionals is a technology problem, and I believe it much more likely to be an economic structural problem. And overall, I think that powerful generative AI will make these economic structural problems much worse.

[paxys]

It's a gatekeeping problem. Doctors don't want more doctors because it dilutes their own value, so medical school and residency spots are kept artificially limited.

[HelloMcFly]

This is oft-repeated truism, but what evidence do you have for this?

Here are some facts:

- Ultimately, the main chokepoint for the number of trained physicians is the number of residency spots. You can cut the price of med school to $0, you'll eventually end up with minimally more fully trained doctors because they need a residency spot.

- Residency spots are paid for by the federal government. Congress controls the number of available spots. Medical professional bodies do not determine this.

- The AMA has consistently asked members to support legislation increasing funding for GME positions (https://www.ama-assn.org/about/leadership/more-medicare-supp...). At one point (late 90s) they opposed expanding the slots, but this has not been true for some time. And, even if it were true, it's ultimately still not their call.

[UncleMeat]

What huge productivity boosts will this provide that doesn't include "the time you spend with the doctor is shorter than it once was?"

My sister is in a healthcare field. Automatic charting is useful, but not a game changer. Healthcare companies seem to be largely interested in placing AI in between their nurses/doctors and their patients. I'm not terribly excited about that.

[trainerxr50]

It doesn't take super intelligence to give my elderly father a bath or wipe his ass.

I think the main problem is we would almost need an economic depression so that at the margin there were for less alternative jobs available than giving my father a bath.

Then also consider that say we do have super-intelligence that adds a few years to his life because of better diagnostics and treatment of death. It actually makes the day to day care problem worse in the aggregate.

We are headed towards this boomer long term care disaster and there is nothing that is going to avert it. Boomers I talk to are completely in denial of this problem too. They are expecting the long term care situation to look like what their parents had. I just try to convince every boomer I know that they have to do everything they can do physically now to better themselves to stay out of long term care as long as possible.