Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by counters 360 days ago
> Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years

Year-over-year, economic impacts and disruptions due to tropical cyclones are dramatically rising. Most of this is an exposure issue. But long-tail events - like Andrew's utter devastation of Homestead in 1992 or Katrina's unique confluence of storm surge in urban/suburban parishes in LA - can and do happen.

One day, there will be another Galveston or Homestead.
2 comments
bena 360 days ago
That day being essentially yesterday.

Since Katrina, the next 10 costliest hurricanes are all after.

We don't dwell on the Ikes, Idas, and Helenes because they often happen to smaller communities and they've become common enough that we've gotten a little fatigued.

link
counters 360 days ago
Well put.
link
deadbabe 360 days ago
There won’t be another Andrew because the building codes were changed so that all new construction must withstand category 5 storm force, which when Andrew came around was not a requirement. Over time, there is a natural selection that occurs where destroyed buildings are replaced with stronger buildings with stricter codes.
link
counters 360 days ago
> There won’t be another Andrew because the building codes were changed so that all new construction must withstand category 5 storm force

I sincerely hope you're right, but there is plenty of evidence suggesting that this will not be the case, owing to a multitude of factors:

- not all housing stock is <30 years old and has been properly retrofitted to meet state specs

- the climates around the Gulf, which tend to be more humid, can lead to premature degradation of things like strengthened anchor bolts and roof attachments

- there continue to be immense factors related to cost and time-to-build which provide significant negative pressure towards cutting corners and minimum-compliance which may mitigate some of the attendant benefits of strengthened building codes

An event like Andrew _is the selection event_ that you're referring to.

link
buttercraft 360 days ago
What about the flooding?
link
sorcerer-mar 360 days ago
....all of which makes them more expensive to insure (and build, obviously)...
link