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by spprashant
363 days ago
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Anecdotally, when the US presidential elections were in the final few weeks, and the polls were leaning Harris, prediction markets suddenly slipped towards favoring Trump against conventional wisdom. There was one investor from France I believe who bet heavily on Trump winning almost $28M. After election it was revealed he had some private polling done, which informed his decision. It doesn't answer the question you posed, but I believe these markets could highlight some inefficiencies that conventional mainstream information cannot capture. |
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