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by pfhayes 351 days ago
Garry Tan posted some data recently on performance investing in demo day: https://x.com/garrytan/status/1927946812364574912

These returns outperform the S&P. Maybe these aren’t typical, but it’s pretty far from “you could flip a coin and beat YC”

1 comments

You need to read the fine print on the slide you linked. They carefully chose a cohort to show these numbers. It only apply to investors that backed 3 or more companies during a demo day. And, as you can see, the more YC drinks it's kool-aide, the worse it performs. Even years when the market was gangbusters, YC still saw decreased returns year over year.

It's an odd metric to choose, which makes me believe it's one of the few positive ones.

Also, as I've said, Ponzi schemes work great for the early people. You give $50k to an unprofitable company and convince someone else to give them $1m. You get your investment back plus a little bit, and you leave someone else holding the bag of an unprofitable company.

> These returns outperform the S&P.

These very specifically chosen returns outperform the S&P :). That's why it's mostly kids that go through YC.