[rdl]

I think the next big innovation after EV (+ diesel for long haul, and maybe diesel/hybrid), will be self-driving cars. If you keep cars for 10 years, it's reasonable that a car bought today could be your last without a self-driving mode, even if that self driving mode only covers certain driving regimes (auto-park, which the Japanese prius did a few years ago; highway close-follow road-train mode, auto-braking (which we have now in some high end luxury cars), etc.

[ChuckMcM]

I think your 10 year estimate is optimistic, but it is certainly coming to the point where the cars drive themselves. One of the interesting things about being driven, as opposed to driving, is that passengers rarely suffer from 'road rage.' That is a big win.

Perhaps more interesting will be the transition time, that point where half the cars are self driving and half are manually driven. Will manual drivers become more aggressive because they "know" the robo-cars will get out of their way? I expect it will be less fun before it is more fun.

[simba-hiiipower]

"Perhaps more interesting will be the transition time, that point where half the cars are self driving and half are manually driven. Will manual drivers become more aggressive because they "know" the robo-cars will get out of their way?"

that would be quite interesting to see. i could certainly see myself becoming more aggressive if i knew others around me would adjust without incident; though that would depend on if self-driving cars are clearly labeled as such (i.e. with special plates)

[weaksauce]

Actually, someone was saying that they saw a google bubble when they witnessed the self driving car in traffic. As the google car tried to keep a safe distance people kept cutting in that space and making the google car slow down even further to get the required space.

[rogerbinns]

The irony is that could lead to reduced congestion. See the experiments with following distances at http://trafficwaves.org/

[guimarin]

I actually expect major pushback to automated cars for just this reason. and suspect that ultimately we will have to legislate that all cars be automated.

[Flenser]

until the first self driving car-bomb and then they'll be banned.