[rahimnathwani]

  Prisons make criminals more likely to commit crime in the future.

Prisons make people less likely to become criminals.

Your comment focuses on prison and the impact it has on a single criminal who is caught, convicted, and put in prison. Sometimes this is a useful way to look at things.

I think it's far more useful to consider prison's impact on all the people who are not in prison. It serves as a crime deterrent.

[energywut]

> Prisons make people less likely to become criminals.

Here is a study supporting the assertion that prisons increase (or do not reduce) the likelihood of someone reoffending in the future. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715100

Your claim that prisons reduce the likelihood of the population at large is not obvious on its face, as the US has very high rate of incarceration, but still has moderately high crime rates. Can you supply some data?

[rahimnathwani]

  Your claim that prisons reduce the likelihood of the population at large is not obvious on its face

Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant?

  Here is a study supporting the assertion that prisons increase (or do not reduce) the likelihood of someone reoffending in the future

That has nothing to do with the point I made, which was about people becoming criminals. I said nothing about the behaviour of existing criminals.

[energywut]

> Are you saying that, irrespective of the chance of being caught and convicted, and of the severity of the likely punishment, the likelihood of someone committing a crime is constant?

I'm saying that prison sentences are not a deterrent to crime, and, in fact, increase the amount of crime done. Research has consistently shown that the threat of being caught is considerably higher deterrent than prison time, and that harsh sentences don't influence behavior:

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterr...

> That has nothing to do with the point I made, which was about people becoming criminals.

We are discussing crime. Which has a total sum. You can reduce that sum by preventing people from being criminals or you can reduce that sum by reforming criminals. I believe you need both. So it is important to remember that prisons negatively contribute to reforming people, increasing total crime, while research shows they don't contribute to preventing people from being criminals.

We need other systems, systems that prevent people from becoming criminals AND reduce the likelihood of re-offending if they do.

[rahimnathwani]

  I'm saying that prison sentences are not a deterrent to crime, and, in fact, increase the amount of crime done. Research has consistently shown that the threat of being caught is considerably higher deterrent than prison time, and that harsh sentences don't influence behavior:

Would the threat of being caught be a deterrent if the sentence were 1 day?