[energywut]

You have any data to support that? I've lived in Seattle for 40 years, and crime here is way less of a concern now than it ever has been. Especially violent crime.

My experience also seems to match statistics. So, it would seem that your friend's experience might be the outlier -- I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying their experience doesn't match the data and there's at least one anecdote (mine) that runs counter to their anecdote. Seems like a good opportunity to try and find data that supports your hypothesis?

[vessenes]

I'm not sure the data backs up your assertion -- in fact, it looks to me like Seattle's crime rate is roughly steady -- and bad -- over the last 20 years.

Seattle had the highest burglary rate in the nation of any large city as recently as 2023 (1201 per 100k residents!). https://www.safehome.org/resources/crime-statistics-by-state...

from 1999-2018 (most recent I can find a chart for), Violent crime ebbed and flowed but ended essentially where it started: 680/100k residents, almost double the US average. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/us/wa/seat.... I believe this uses FBI numbers.

Seattle Police report 5394 violent crimes in 2024, with 755k residents that's ~700 violent crimes per 100k, or roughly where it was in both 1999 and in 2018. https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2025/04/28/crime-drops-2...

I note that the Axios article says 2025 is on track to be a big drop; I have no idea what crime seasonality is, so I'd take that news story with a grain of salt until the year is out. Either way I just don't think Seattle's crime rates are "way less of a concern" over the last 40 years. Well, people may have become acclimated or stopped caring. But the rates are high, and don't look to have changed that much.

[energywut]

Look back further - https://images.seattletimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/F...

In the 80s and 90s, violent crime rates were well above 1000/100k residents, and property crimes 12k/100k.

[vessenes]

OK, but that drop occurred roughly when Kurt Cobain died. Since then it hasn't moved that much. I believe you that Belltown is safer than 1993. That's just not that recent!

[WalterBright]

Googling "crime down in seattle due to lower reporting rates" results in:

"While crime rates in Seattle have recently shown a decrease, some reports suggest this may be partially attributed to a decline in reporting rather than a genuine reduction in criminal activity. Specifically, some authorities have noted that crimes against businesses, in particular, are frequently not reported."

"The police chief specifically mentioned that a 10% drop in property crime might not be entirely accurate because many business-related crimes go unreported."

[senderista]

It is a fact that CVS didn’t lock up the toothpaste until a few years ago. There must be a reason.

[mensetmanusman]

“Data on the things that no one is reporting”

[energywut]

Don't be facile.

Police reports aren't the only source of data. If this was a widespread impact then there would be other sources of data that could be used to build this case.

Additionally, we cannot make policy decisions on "just trust me, my friend said...". Maybe we can't get a perfect signal, but if you are going to challenge the prevailing data, I expect you to bring something novel beyond vibes. It doesn't have to be perfect, but a single anecdote plus "I believe it" is not sufficient to oppose what the data we do have is consistently saying -- crime is lower in Seattle, and has been consistently lowering over time.

[mrguyorama]

Nothing has to be reported for a retail business to note that shrink is going up.

Why isn't shrink going up?

[naijaboiler]

Um you are more gracious than me. I will just flat out call out as his friend as lying