[jvalencia]

It's like the invention of the washing machine. People didn't stop doing chores, they just do it more efficiently.

Coders won't stop being, they'll just do more, compete at higher levels. The losers are the ones who won't/can't adapt.

[bgwalter]

No, all washing machines were centralized in the OpenWash company. In order to do your laundry, you needed a subscription and had to send your clothes to San Francisco and back.

[vntok]

Exactly, it wasn't the case then with washing machines and it's not the case now with AI. Your example is pretty relevant!

Today, anyone can run SOTA open-weights models in the comfort of their home for much less than the price of a ~1929 electric washing machine ($150 then or $2,800 today).

[er4hn]

That was something I struggled to understand for AI-2027. They have China nationalize DeepCent so there's only one Chinese lab. I don't understand why OpenBrain doesn't form multiple competing labs because that seems to be what happened IRL before this was written.

[refulgentis]

Because it's an excuse for a psychiatrist to wank about their political hobbyhorses, not an actual work of any effort, other than cavorting in the right circles. (i.e. we see a your question can also be framed as: "why doesn't the geopolitical fantasy masquerading as a serious whitepaper try to imitate real life, like, at all?"

[jgalt212]

Excellent analogy

[falcor84]

I suppose that those who stayed in the washing business and competed at a higher level are the ones running their own laundromats; are they the big winners of this technological shift?

[alganet]

What are you even talking about?

The article is not about AI replacing jobs. It doesn't even touch this subject.

[fasthands9]

Yeah. For understandable reasons that is covered a lot too, but AI 2027 is really about the risk of self-replicating AI. Is an AI virus possible, and could it be easily stopped by humans and our military?

[alganet]

Actually, the subject has shifted from discussing any specific forecast to "really, how reliable are these forecasts?"