[koonsolo]

I learned neural networks around 2000, and it was old technology then. The last real jump we saw was going from ChatGPT 3.5 to 4, and that is more than 2 years ago.

It seems you don't recollect how much time passed without any big revolutions in AI. Deep learning was a big jump. But when the next jump comes? Might be tomorrow, but looking at history, might be in 2035.

According to what I see, the curve has already flattened and now only a new revolution could get us to the next big step.

[koonsolo]

Since I can't seem to add an edit to my post, here's a realization:

My 2035 prediction actually seems pretty optimistic. It was more than 20 years that we haven't seen any big AI revolutions, so 2045 would be more realistic.

And it seems our current AI is also not going to get us there any faster.

[scrivna]

Agree, the AI companies aren’t able to improve the base models so they’re pivoting to making add-ons like “agents” which seem to only be instructions atop the base models.

[soulofmischief]

Progress is progress. Just as a raw base models need RL to be useful, an agentic layer allows us to put these probabilistic machines on rails.