[kypro]

I agree, but I think you're assuming a certain type of person who understands that a detailed prediction can be both wrong and right simultaneously. And that it's not so much about getting all the details right, but being in the right ballpark.

Unfortunately there's a huge number of people who get obsessed about details and then nit pick. I see this with Eliezer Yudkowsky all the time where 90% of the criticism of his views are just nit picking the weaker predictions he makes while ignoring his stronger predictions regarding the core risks which could result in those bad things happening. I think Yudkowsky opens himself up to this though because he often makes very detailed predictions about how things might play out and this largely why he's so controversial, in my opinion.

I really liked AI 2027 personally. I thought specifically the tabletop exercises were a nice heuristic for predicting how actors might behave in certain scenarios. I also agree that it presented a plausible narrative for how things could play out. I'm also glad they did wimp out with the bad ending. Another problem I have with people are concerned about AI risk is that they scare away from speaking plainly about the fact if things go poorly your love ones in a few years will probably either be either be dead, in suspended animation on a memory chip, or in a literal digital hell.