[bdamm]

It's probably also got to do with some magic behind the curtains; Waymo hasn't expanded much beyond their initial regions, so they've been static for years in terms of region. They very well may have hand-crafted expected paths, and obviously as the region coverage goes up that kind of hang-crafting doesn't scale (due to changes in the environment, at least) economically. So we can't really say how much work Waymo is putting into each mile. That's true of Tesla also, except that kind of work is totally antithetical to their entire approach from the very beginning, so it would be really surprising to find Tesla getting stuck in that specific local minima, wheras we can almost expect it from Waymo.

As a counter anecdote, I do use FSD with my family in the car, I also have used it on snowy roads, logging roads, and it does quite well. Not unsupervised well, but better than I expected given that I'm running FSD on a nearly 6-year old car. The number of trips around town that have been totaly interventionless has definitely been going up lately, and usually interventions have been because I wanted to be more aggressive, not because the car was making a major error or even being rough.