[zild3d]

> the US. Getting dragged into an Israeli war

A lot of people saying this, what would this actually entail? My money is much more on this being a "1 and done" exchange. Iran poses very little threat now, launchers being taken out everyday, leadership chain wiped out, seemingly no other Iran allies getting pulled into the fold

[mjburgess]

Iran has a population of 92mil and an economy vastly stronger than iraq 2003 -- it also has extremely motivated backers in China, who are eagar to use it the way the US uses Ukraine: a means to deplete a peer competitor of their military resources. The best outcome for China here is the US blowing its assets in Iran.

The propaganda at the moment is israel is winning, iran isnt using missiles because of "air superiority", and the US is able and willing to detroy the nuclear capacity via the air. All of these claims are false. Iran's capacity to strike back remains vast using only its own resources.

What the US has been dragged into by israel is an amazing opportunity for a US peer competitor (china) to grind down its arms -- it would be remarkable if China doesn't take it. It can hardly afford the US to be a well-armed protector of Taiwan.

The iranian regieme's apparent hesitation at the moment is not as extreme as russia's on the first days of the ukraine war, and look at where we are now. This apparent hesitation is waiting for israel to deplete its missile defense, waiting for a more stable intelligence environment (presumably moving assets, etc. around out of uncovered israeli operations), and most of all, waiting for a moment to strike off-guard.

[whynotminot]

The bombs used were literally designed for Iran. They deplete no real capability that matters anywhere else the US is meaningfully engaged.

If the US had lost a B2 during the operation, then sure, that would be a major loss. But as far as I can tell we did not.

[mjburgess]

The ground invasion hasn't started yet, the US is supplying israel, and you can see my other comment.

[whynotminot]

We’re always supplying Israel. I think that cost is basically priced-in at this point.

If we get involved in a ground invasion, sure, that’s a different matter.

[mjburgess]

Even if its an israeli ground invasion only, that's still a massive arms injection --- at the same time the US is supplying a ground war in europe.

A ground war in europe, one in the middle east -- all of the US assets in distant seas, its bombs in distant lands. Pretty good time to be a china on tour.

[whynotminot]

Brother take a look at a map. Exactly how does Israel pull off a sustained ground invasion of Iran, even if the US committed to help?

Sure, maybe some targeted commando raids here and there. They’re already doing that.

Large scale invasion though? Almost logistically impossible unless you’re telling me the maps I’ve looked at my whole life are state propaganda too.

[Invictus0]

We dropped a dozen highly specialized bombs in a single, closed-end operation, and you're arguing that this meaningfully depleted the USAF magazine enough to move the needle on a conflict in Taiwan?

[mjburgess]

I'd be arguing first that the operation failed, and has made no meaningful impact on the mountain and esp. the nuclear facilities over 100m under granite.

Generous estimates place relevant bomb capacity in the US at 100, though I believe only ~1/3 of that is confirmed. Reports say ~10 were used. So, speculatively, the US has used 25% of its capacity to bust deep fortifications -- and, imv, failed to make a dent.

Credible estimates I'm aware of talk about dozens of bombs (per similar deep fortification), seriously depleting US capacity. It's unlikely the US would be willing to use up more than 50% of its bombing capacity here -- since a very large number of bombs are required for deep fortifications of this kind.

ie., US capacity is about "destroying two mountains", and it really needs at least to retain capacity to destroy one.

A well-designed nuke could take out the mountain, that's really the best air-supplied shot at taking the thing out.

Either way, none of this can be confirmed without ground forces. So one wonders if at least some of this theatre is to provoke iran enough to react in a way that justifies a ground invasion.

To your point, yes, china would absolutely love the US to degrade as much capacity as it possibly can. One images, even, they'd spin up a nuclear programme in iran very quickly again, just to try to drag the US back in. The US has done much worse.

China's geostrategic goal at the moment is stamp on the rope-pins around the US elephant: ukraine, iran, israel, and so on. Have the US blow as much as possible of its rapidly depleting military arsenal everywhere but around china.

Trump was the first president to really take this problem seriously, it's a little unfortunate that he's found himself in the same trap as every US president for the last 25 years.

[tekknik]

I stopped reading after 100 bombs capacity. They are purpose built bombs, we don’t stockpile them as we don’t hit iranian mountain target regularly enough.

The US spends more on military than most of the rest of the world combined. Every conflict there’s a contingent of people claiming the US will soon be out of munitions and can’t continue. Now the statement is made on the first attack. The US is oddly perceived as weak by this contingent, which flies in the face of reason.

[mjburgess]

The US' military supremacy "illusion" comes from an era when the US had no peer competitors of a similar size -- waging wars in this era is really cheap.

It's highly debatable whether the US can contain china at its present size, let alone in a few years. China is vastly large than the soviet union, in comparison to the US, at the height of the cold war -- and merely to contain a smaller adversary, the US had to significantly outspend it.

The US can dominate its region relatively cheaply (ie., the western hemisphere); but if it wants to retain the ability to project power across the world, and be the primary power in theatres of interest (middle east and china esp.) then it's woefully underspending.

The US is armed to take on a world without peer competitors. If it had to fight a proxy war with china, dominate the middle east, and supply a land war in ukraine -- it would loose all three.

The asymmetry of power needed for the US to dominate the world is enourmous -- this was only cheap when the single adversary was a much smaller russia.

The US does not have the manufacturing capacity to replace 50% of its bunker-buster arms "suddenly". It simply cannot do it. So if a war breaks out tomorrow, where it needs these arms, they're gone.

The west is simply not equipped to wars with peer competitors. It's equipped for the taliban, not nations with fleets of air craft carriers.

[tekknik]

This is more hogwash with the statement:

> It's equipped for the taliban, not nations with fleets of air craft carriers.

The US has more carriers than all other nations combined, times 2.

> The US does not have the manufacturing capacity to replace 50% of its bunker-buster arms "suddenly". It simply cannot do it. So if a war breaks out tomorrow, where it needs these arms, they're gone.

During a time of war every manufacturing plant capable of being reconfigured to make arms or vehicles is. Just like in WW2.

The rest of this is just silly. The US “owns” the oceans. We go where we want when we want any call it “freedom of navigation“ and nobody stops us.

I’m sorry I offended your country’s capabilities vs the US, but there’s a reason the US hasn’t been invaded yet and it’s because it’s an impossible feat.

[atoav]

> The US spends more on military than most of the rest of the world combined.

In absolute numbers yes, as a fraction of GDP that is currently not true (US ranks 8th place there). US doesn't even spend the 5% Trump demands other allies should spend.

[tekknik]

I’m not sure how this really refutes or supports anything, it’s just random noise.

[bamboozled]

The propaganda

What propaganda ? I’ve seen the footage of Iran firing flak cannons somewhere in the direction of f35s. Not a single Israeli plane has been lost…where is the lie ?

Iran has a population of 92mil and an economy vastly stronger than iraq 2003* why assume they want the current leadership to remain in charge? Why assume they wanted nukes ?

You mention China grinding down its enemy ? What about the fact the air force is actually performing real missions being and gaining real experience ? Is a few bunker busters going to grind down the USAF ?

[mjburgess]

Neither you or I, and esp. not the media, have any access to facts on the ground. All photographs or videos you have seen have been placed there for you to see them.

All we can work backwards from are the most reliable facts we have before the war, about capabilities on the ground. We know the rough size of the iranian missile programme, of the country, economic, various military assets and similar.

We can work backwards from this to ask, "what would we be able to see had Israel achieved its claim re iran" -- and we're talking extraordinary levels of destruction in iran, across the country, and so on. We don't have any evidence of operations of that scale even taking place, let alone having been successful.

It is most likely, at the moment, that at least some alleged air force victories by israel are actual missiles they've issued from neighbouring states on the land.

However, either way, all of this is speculation. What can be stated with near certainty is that any picture presented in the media is an extremely careful creation of the propaganda arms of our states, and not a credible military briefing.

Our only access to reliable inferences is purely rational and hypothetical: what are X's aims, what are their claims, what are they claimed strategies, what are their capabilities and so on.. and then what would we see *if*...

[potholereseller]

> All photographs or videos you have seen have been placed there for you to see them.

For those reading the above, wondering about this phenomenon, read Baudrilliard's The Gulf War Did Not Take Place. Even if you don't agree with Baudrilliard's overall thesis, the facts he brings up are still cogent (e.g. a photo from the Exon Valdez spill was used instead of an actual photo of the Iraqi military's destruction of Kuwaiti oil fields). The media has been a critical aspect of war since at least the Falklands War.

[bamboozled]

I am talking about open source and community driven footage and intel. Not CNN or Fox ?

[whynotminot]

I’m sorry in all this noise I’m failing to get to your point. Are you claiming that Iran is shooting down F-35s? Because that would be a pretty important piece of information that a lot of countries who have staked their Air Forces on the F-35 would like to know. It would also be a hard piece of information (damn near impossible) to keep under wraps, given the stakes, and the number of interested parties.

[mjburgess]

I'm claiming that the alleged air superiority is most likely partial and temporary.

I can make no specific claims as to any actions by any one involved in the conflict, if iran had shot down f35s presently, it'd be highly likely covered up by both sides. Iran to protect knowledge of its capability, and israel to ensure domestic morale is maintained.

Either way, that wasn't my claim.

[geysersam]

I think you make a good point about the facts being heavily skewed in the reporting on the attacks in Iran. But this seems very unlikely to me:

> Iran to protect knowledge of its capability

Protect knowledge against who? Israel will know if one of their planes were shot down, US will know. Besides, Iran claims to have shot down f35s, so they clearly want people to think they have that capability.

[tekknik]

> I'm claiming that the alleged air superiority is most likely partial and temporary.

This is rich. It took minutes to claim the air over Iran, what exactly gives you the impression of strength? Two US carriers parked off the coast is enough to not only maintain that superiority, but to down the entirety of their very aged air force.

> Iran to protect knowledge of its capability

Let’s think this through. You could announce that you’ve downed an advanced fighter without explaining how and unless the US or Israel gets a hold of the wreckage to do an investigation, nobody but the pilot will know how it was downed. This logic that Iran is trying to protect some super secret method of downing advanced fighters doesn’t pass the smell check.

[pliny]

>All photographs or videos you have seen have been placed there for you to see them

The source of most of the videos from both sides is random social media users.

Even the videos and info from the IDF I would regard as credible, since they released similar videos and info from the Lebanon operation last year that was consistently corroborated by evidence from social media (there was no internet blackout in Lebanon so every IDF strike on an urban area had multiple videos from different perspectives).

[mjburgess]

Social media users placed by iran's full missile defense systems? Social media users at the bottom of 100m of granite? Social media users amongst the iranian barracks?

I called the war for Russia ~2 years ago, just as the "counter offensive" by Ukraine was starting. Go back, if you wish, to that time in the news and find exactly what english-speaking western median, and social media, was saying.

What is the picture you get, of Ukraine and its counteroffensive, delivered to you from these sources?

It's always a little stunning just how easy it is for publics to be manipulated. Oh what a world.

[bamboozled]

You called the war for Russia? Did they win ?

Anyway why don’t we see videos from Iran of Israeli jets being shot down ? Why is there no footage of Irans airforce engaging Israel ? Why didn’t the B-2 spirits get attacked ? You can say it’s all lies and propaganda , but it’s not because there is no evidence to the contrary being presented.

[foobarian]

I wonder if the regime is holding back so as to not piss off the remaining JCPOA signatories. They only have until October [1], and after that it's not clear if they can agree on a renewed set of sanctions.

[1] https://iranwire.com/en/politics/136431-how-the-snapback-mec...

[insane_dreamer]

China buys all their oil so not sure how much the sanctions are a problem

[dontTREATonme]

This is serious cope. Iran has never held back, they always go full tilt. They simply are the same paper tiger that Russia is, just now without the ability to produce nukes.

[atoav]

You always know an enemy is a paper tiger if it is at the same time weak and practically defeated and really dangerous and unhinged. Literally propaganda 101.

Just like foreigners who are lazy leeches on the social system and at the same how somehow steal our jobs.

[dontTREATonme]

You can be a paper tiger and still pretty dangerous if you’re able to acquire nuclear weapons.

[blindriver]

> All of these claims are false.

Source please.

[floatrock]

> Iran poses very little threat now, launchers being taken out everyday

What do Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Dubai have in common?

All of their oil tankers sail through a 20mi strip of water called the Straight of Hormuz, completely bordered by Iran on one side. Saudi Arabia has access to the Red Sea and a bunch of pipelines to take some of their oil there, but most of their maritime ports are in the Persian Gulf.

You don't need hypersonic ballistic missiles to take out an oil tanker. Save those for Israel, all you need is a few drones, speedboats, and mines.

Oh, what's that, a good chunk of attack drones undergoing "field trials" in Ukranian population centers are Iranian-made purchased by Russia? And those drones are designed to be launched from mobile trucks in any non-descript garage instead of static missile silos?

We've seen what a rag-tag group of Yemeni rebels with some light rockets have done to ocean shipping at the chokepoint to the Red Sea, now we're gonna see what the people supplying the Houthi's can do at the chokepoint to the Oil Sea.

Hope y'all enjoyed your sub-$2 gas prices.

[pimeys]

Bingo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-urges-china-dissuade-...

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to encourage Iran to not shut down the Strait of Hormuz after Washington carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Rubio's comments on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo" show came after Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows.

[insane_dreamer]

The problem for Iran is that it also hurts itself as its own terminals are upstream of the straight

[tguvot]

houthis been using iran supplied anti ship missiles. not exactly stuff that you pickup in bass pro shops

[diggan]

> My money is much more on this being a "1 and done" exchange

For as long as I've been alive, every action from the US in the middle east been a "1 and done" exchange, and Bush famously hosted a "Mission Accomplished" party two months after the start of the invasion of Iraq.

I'd be surprised if this was the only action from the US' side during this war, based on history, but maybe things are different today, seems highly unlikely though.

[burnt-resistor]

This. The Iran "nuclear" thing is Iraq "WMDs" MacGuffins all over again, but it's the saber rattling Netanyahu is using to maintain popular and power, and Trump is going along for it, imperiling America's security for decades by asking for more terror attacks in the homeland.

[diggan]

"Fun" fact: Same guy lied in his congressional testimony, claiming that Saddam Hussein is building nuclear weapons which was the reason for the Iraq invasion.

Shame politicians always seem to lack a spine when it matters.

[mindslight]

If there is one value that Trump is able to empathize with, it's lying and then turning it into a political crusade to stay out of prison.

[Panoramix]

Reports are that if Iran keeps things going on, Israel is going to run out of interceptors in 10 days or so, at which point they are gonna be seriously damaged. Some missiles are already getting through, there's speculation of hyper-sonic missiles from Iran or just failure to shoot them down.

Either way: This doesn't stop here, and it was never about these bogus nuclear weapons (which are just around the corner since the 80's) just like Iraq was not about weapons of mass destruction. They want to place a puppet government...what could go wrong?

[MF-DOOM]

This isn’t accurate. The thing that’s going to possibly be depleted is “Arrow 3” - the first line of aerial defense (excluding operations that target the launchers within Iran). They still have plenty of Arrow 2 and David’s’ slingshot missiles.

[Beefin]

this couldn't be more false - jordan and saudi have been shooting down iranian drones. you think america/israel is alone in this dogfight?

[sanderjd]

This episode has demonstrated that diplomacy is not a credible option. So with that off the table, the only two options now are 1. A series of "1 and done" engagements every few years or months, as the regime tries to race toward a bomb, or 2. Regime change.

It's possible that #2 will happen via domestic uprising, but not at all clear whether the result of that would be a friendlier regime that is less interested in going nuclear. It could very plausibly instead be hardliners who are pissed the regime failed to put up a strong enough fight. (I think that would be what would predictably happen in the US in this scenario, for instance!)

And if it's not a domestic uprising, it's a bloody regime change war like the ones fought in the 00s, which ... didn't turn out great, if you recall!

Possibly #1 is a better outcome. But I'm very skeptical that "we'll just bomb a big country periodically" is a strategy that will never escalate into protracted war.

[LeonB]

Chance of Iran launching a nuclear strike on the US has gone from 0% to 0%.

Chance of terrorist activity on US soil in the next 10 years has increased.

I don’t think it’s improved things for the US.

[umbra07]

They could have nuked a neighboring country.

Neighboring countries like KSA have openly declared their intention to get nukes.

They could give the nuke to a proxy (or have it stolen) who then detonates it either at a US military base in the region or on US soil.

[karmakurtisaani]

This only happens if Iran sits there and takes it. What if they close the strait? Or shoot missiles to US bases?

[infecto]

I have mixed feelings about the current state but is that a legitimate question. I imagine Iran would fire once on the US and then all heck would reign down on them from the skies. I don’t see a situation where Iran can hold on. Most of the people do not support the government.

[dreghgh]

What if they hit US bases using 'plausibly deniable' cutouts?

The Glorious Revolutionary Militia of country X, using Iranian built and supplied drones or missiles, blows up young American soldiers in a country half the electorate didn't even know there was a presence in. Iran disclaims all involvement, but says they sympathise with the legitimate frustration of the locals. Do you think the United States gets involved in a hot war against Iran based on that?

Remember the Beirut truck bombings. The biggest single day US Marine loss of life since Iwo Jima. Reagan (and Mitterand) immediately says there will be no withdrawal. They shoot a lot of artillery in the general direction of Hezbollah from a boat, then immediately withdraw all troops.

[gcanyon]

> Most of the people do not support the government.

You're implying that a foreign power bombing Iran would make the people less likely to support their government. Do you have justification for that?

[GlacierFox]

Iranian people hate the Ayatollahs. They execute any opposition. The populace is literally dying for change.

[swat535]

Yes, they do but they love IRAN even more. Defending the country against hostile forces is going to be their priority.

[GlacierFox]

Which hostile forces? The US has attacked nuclear sites which they're using to build Nuclear bombs, not sent a warhead into Tehran. I think you're underestimating the dissatisfaction of the Iranian people people with the death cult in charge.

[yibg]

Being attacked boosts domestic support for leadership, even unpopular ones. If Iran actually attacked the US some how, you can bet Trump's approval rating goes up.

[infecto]

Definitely increases the fervor of the hardliners. Do I have a current pole for a good sample of folks in the country l? No. But have a pretty large number of friends who Iranian and also have been there a couple times. Most of the population do not like the government.

[bitmasher9]

The power delta between The United Stated and Iran is lower than any of our other engagements since WW2, and look at how many resources were spent for questionable outcomes.

[infecto]

I can see this being true but I would be surprised this would ever be a boots on the ground situation for America. Don’t get me wrong, I have mixed feelings of the current state but I also don’t see how Iran would be able to hold any kind of air superiority. They are already being down by the tiny country of Israel.

[EasyMark]

Unless they find the location of the moved highly enriched uranium, there may be a few follow up bombings to handle that but I suspect Israel would take that on.

[burnt-resistor]

You missed the point: this was entirely for show, may not have accomplished any or all of the mission objectives claimed, and, in all likelihood, setup thousands of American civilians for a series of 9/11-like terrorist attacks for the next 20 years. The reality show circus continues.

[UncleMeat]

Trump is already screaming online about regime change. Your money might be at risk.