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by rexer 358 days ago
Do you think Iran will have nukes in the near (20 years, just to put a number) term? Your position really only makes sense if that's not the case. By whatever means, the goal now seems to be to prevent that.

> I don't think we have a better option

I'd love help getting on board with this
3 comments
cryptonector 358 days ago
> Do you think Iran will have nukes in the near (20 years, just to put a number) term?

If they managed to get enough of their HEU and any reactor spent fuel out of Fordo and elsewhere into locations we don't know about where they happen to have previously built backup facilities then they could have them very quickly. Hopefully a) they didn't build backup facilities, and b) didn't get a change to spirit away the materials w/o us noticing.

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15155 357 days ago
https://www.twz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/250619-Fordo-...

If commercial satellite photography can keep an eye on the movement of trucks in this area, it's probably safe to assume that spy satellites can too.

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cryptonector 356 days ago
No doubt, but the trucks can split up, switcheroos can be made, and pretty quickly it can be hard to track them all down.
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tonyhart7 358 days ago
I mean 20 years ago, mossad literally destroy their nuclear program using Stuxnet

20 years is reasonable time to rebuild

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Ancapistani 358 days ago
The plan we've committed to now is to prevent it.

If we fail, there's still the hope that other commenters here are right, and Iran isn't intent on using them offensively. If so, then Iran itself will be safe from this sort of attack.

... but it will also be clear to every other that the only way to be secure from Western military intervention is to possess nuclear weapons. There will be a precedent of a country acquiring them despite Western demands and surviving. This will lead to a world where proliferation is rampant, but not necessarily one where their use is no longer taboo as it is today.

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seadan83 358 days ago
> There will be a precedent of a country acquiring them despite Western demands and surviving.

Like North Korea?

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Ancapistani 357 days ago
Correct.

And like Ukraine (conversely).

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