[dkjaudyeqooe]

There are reasons why presidents have avoided attacking Iran.

- massive instability in the ME. Just a few men with shoulder fired missiles can disrupt oil shipments from the biggest oil producers

- the high chance of being sucked into a forever war. Iran can cause a lot of problems with limited resources and can rebuild. They have no reason to give up and the US might have to continue bombing indefinitely, or launch a ground invasion.

- the increased chance of nuclear war in the ME. This action assumes that Iran has no backup facilities, or will never have, to continue building a bomb. Having already suffered the consequences, Iran has no reason not to seek a bomb.

[austin-cheney]

Worse, is that this was done at the behest of Israel. Israel is America’s shittiest ally in the region where the relationship is exclusively one-sided. There are good reasons why, despite all the lies and bullshit from America politicians, America has not executed military actions at their behest before now.

[jordanb]

“Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East.” — John Sheehan, S.J.

[woah]

Before Israel, the middle east was controlled by Great Britain

[snickerbockers]

Yeah but only on a temporary basis as they had to promise independence to the Arab tribes for their support against the Ottomans. Which brings us to the land of Palestine, which they actually promised exclusive dominion over to both the Jews and the Arabs. And that brings us full circle to the true shittiest ally America has in the middle east, "Great" Britain

[coffeemug]

Thomas Jefferson sent the U.S. navy to fight the Barbary war (in modern Libya) because he refused to pay tribute to protect our trading routes. This quote is simply false. We've had enemies in the Middle East pretty much since the founding of the American republic.

[margalabargala]

Where do you think Libya is?

Libya is nowhere near the Middle East. It's not even the Near East. It's in northern Africa.

[jordanb]

1) Libya is not in the middle east.

2) This was before our war with Canada and just after our Quasi-war with France.

[nullhole]

> “Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East.” — John Sheehan, S.J.

Before Israel? Like before 1947? When half the place was under British rule and the oil industry was a fraction of what it was today?

That's about as useful as saying that before the atomic bomb, we had no enemies in the Middle East.

What a dishonest way to make such an inflammatory accusation.

[CapricornNoble]

Yes, before 1947, back when the Secretary of State as well as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all seasoned professionals who had just won WW2, strongly advised AGAINST supporting Zionism in Palestine. They correctly asserted that demands from the Zionists would never end, and that it would sour the US's otherwise solid relations with the entire Arab region.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1946v07/d5...

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1946v07/d4...

[vFunct]

Yes. Before Israel, when America had no enemies in the mideast. Thanks for confirming.

[fastball]

Who did have enemies in the ME? It was (as stated) mostly a vassal state.

[cloverich]

Oil rose to prominence during this same period; Israel is a major factor but is certainly not the only or even most important issue.

[mensetmanusman]

It wasn’t, the political pressure from Iran’s neighbors was higher, and it didn’t help that the EU was pissed at Iran for helping kill Ukraine.

[dkjaudyeqooe]

This is probably the worst thing about Trump, he's let Bibi lead him around like a dog on a leash.

Any other president would be infuriated with Bibi's actions, because they would know he's cornering the US. But he knew Trump was a pushover.

[I-M-S]

I guess any other president doesn't include Trump's direct predecessor, under whose watch Gaza was allowed to happen.

[dkjaudyeqooe]

A non sequitur followed by a claim that Biden is responsible for Israel's security on the ground against Hamas.

Well Israel's security forces were out to lunch on that score, given how Hamas literately walked all over them, so I can see how you might think that.

But don't let me get in your way while you try to divert attention away from Trump's current recklessness.

[hajile]

Israel ran out of bombs. Biden sent them more so the destruction and killing could continue.

Just one phone call from Biden saying STOP would have halted everything, but Biden is a self-admitted Zionist who never really wanted to stop things.

[0dayz]

Allow Gaza to happen? You mean Biden approved of Oct 7?

[bravesoul2]

No the "self defence" that happened in response to that. 1000s of tonnes of bombs shipped to kill civilians and enact genocide.

[0dayz]

Self defense? Afaik it was a war that now is a genocidal war.

[ekam]

He means the genocide and forced starvation of over a hundred thousand innocent Palestinians

[0dayz]

Biden was not in office when the war went from some genuine cause to full blown they can do whatever they want.

[Ar-Curunir]

Did we live through the same Biden presidency?

[tdeck]

A lot of folks were at brunch.

[mensetmanusman]

Weekend at Biden’s was just ice cream.

[Beefin]

you have no idea what you're talking about - every single country that experiences domestic terrorism relies on israeli intelligence for counter terrorism. almost all of europe, us, much of the middle east all have very active intelligence partnerships.

if you think it's one-sided you're either severely misinformed or bigoted.

[austin-cheney]

Obviously I must be an anti-Semite if I don’t 150% support the politics of Israel and their brutality in the West Bank.

In reality though, I have completed 5 CENTCOM US military deployments. There are few people on HN more qualified to speak to the nature of US alliances in the region.

[idiotsecant]

Israel is a terrorist state. I don't know how else you can call it. They have a state policy of terrorizing their neighbors in order to get them to leave their land and have for decades. The fact that they also help spy on our citizens for our government should not be a reason to support them.

[bushbaba]

Actually now is different. The axis of resistance that would pop up (asad, Hezbollah, Hamas, houthis) are all basically gone and unable to mount an attack.

Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, HTS, and majority of Middle East is not in favor of Iran getting a nuke.

Hatred of Iran, is a unifying force.

[PeterHolzwarth]

Well put, and an important - and often either overlooked or fully unknown - point, especially in the west.

Many in the west see the middle east as a broadly similar unit, not realizing that there Iran represents a frequently highly-disliked section in the broader area. The neutralization of Iraq definitely has had an impact on that front as well (the two being hard core enemies for a long time).

[siltcakes]

The children of all the people killed by Israel will continue to resist. The US/Israel has created 100x new enemies in the past year and a half (not counting the billions outside of the ME).

[mensetmanusman]

Iran killed too many Ukrainians.

[PeterHolzwarth]

Not really. In much of the middle east, Iran is detested and considered an immediate enemy.

[siltcakes]

That's not true at all.

[hiddencost]

I guess that's better than "axis of evil".

Looking forward to the strait of Hormuz shutting down...

[scruple]

Sounds like a good way to make China and Russia angry...

[cloverich]

Serious question re Russia: Can they actually get more engaged than they already are...? Because id thought the opposite; Russia is weaker than anyone since initial soviet breakup, isn't now the ideal time wrt to Israeli involvement?

[vbezhenar]

They can, but that would be stupid, because they need all the weapons they have to continue Ukrainian war.

China is the only country that can help Iran.

[Izikiel43]

For your first point, that’s not as big of an issue as it used to for the USA thanks to fracking, now the USA is a net exporter of oil.

For the second, I don’t think anything other than an air campaign like it’s been done will happen, it’s not like the USA is out for blood like after 9/11.

For the third, yeah, that’s unfortunately possible, North Korea, Ukraine and now this show that the only way no one messes with you is by having a good enough deterrent. However, even if this hadn’t happened, if Iran got a bomb, they wouldn’t threaten like nk does to get stuff, it would just test it on Israel, so you would get nuclear war anyway.

[energy123]

> the increased chance of nuclear war in the ME.

I disagree, given the high probability they were going to do it anyway. They built Natanz enrichment in secret, they built Arak in secret, they built Fordow in secret, not to mention the more recent violations of the NPT to which they're still a signatory. They've violated the NPT over and over and over again. Why would one more agreement make any difference to their clandestine program?

This is the thing Western liberals need to understand. The leaders of these despotic regimes don't think like you. They don't intend to adhere to the agreements like you would. Their psychology is different to your psychology. And you can't make a unilateral agreement with a party like this. The agreement becomes a weapon to creep forward and present the world with a fait accompli at a future date.

[dkjaudyeqooe]

How is "othering" people going to lead to peace? "Western liberals" aren't stupid or naive, they're just seeking a peaceful solution if possible.

And why are people so willing to believe that military force works? It mostly achieves nothing and leads to more violence.

It didn't work in Afghanistan, Iraq or Ukraine, but it will in Iran?

[energy123]

> "Western liberals" aren't stupid or naive, they're just seeking a peaceful solution if possible.

They're not stupid, but they are naive. Look at UN Resolution 1701. Hezbollah agreed to disarm. Then, they just ... didn't.

Predictably, there was no self-reflection among the people that believe in the primacy of diplomacy. This chain of events may as well have not even happened in their minds.

Then when Hezbollah attacks Israel, the same people call for more diplomacy, instead of telling Israel to just win the war against the group that has proven to be unwilling to adhere to agreements.

Then when Israel won the war, finally there was a reconstitution of the Lebanese sovereignty over South Lebanon, which would not have occurred under any diplomatic solution. But predictably, still no self-reflection from any of the people that tried to pursue diplomacy.

I also disagree they want peace. They want "peace", meaning appeasement and kicking the can down the road, and meaning they don't have to be bothered hearing about this stressful news cycle anymore.

[mrkeen]

> This is the thing Western liberals need to understand.

First Western liberals needed to understand that Ukraine shouldn't have given up its nukes. Now they need to understand that Iran shouldn't have tried to get them.

[energy123]

The Ukraine situation proves my point, though. Russia was a signatory to an agreement with Ukraine to not do what they're doing. You can't make unilateral agreements with parties that have no intention of holding to them, as much as you would like to wishcast a different reality. The only option is a military one.

[bigyabai]

> The only option is a military one.

Oh, I've seen this one before! Then you install a police state, back it up with foreign weapons you sell to the police state in exchange for taxpayer money, forcibly "disappear" any disagreeable types and make the entire population hate your country for centuries to come!

https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/legal-and-political-mag...

  All observers to trials since 1965 have reported allegations of torture which have been made by defendants and have expressed their own conviction that prisoners are tortured for the purpose of obtaining confessions. Alleged methods of torture include whipping and beating, electric shocks, the extraction of nails and teeth, boiling water pumped into the rectum, heavy weights hung on the testicles, tying the prisoner to a metal table heated to white heat, inserting a broken bottle into the anus, and rape.

Did "western liberals" get all that? Oh, I forgot this line by mistake!

  SAVAK was established in 1967 with help from both the CIA and the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad.

[energy123]

The false equivalency of destroying a democracy that had no nuclear ambitions, with attacking the nuclear facilities of a theocratic regime that has violated the NPT multiple times.

[bravesoul2]

Is it really about the treaties. Like US is a world cop and good guy that honours all treaties?

[monkaiju]

Blows my mind how people think Iran is building nuclear weapons when nobody in the intel community does... Thought y'all wouldve learned after Iraq but guess not...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/17/trump-iran-i...