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by hkpack 365 days ago
Alternative prediction: Destabilized Iran will make another migration crisis in Europe, will divide it politically because of the rise of anti immigrant far right, and finally set the scene for a full scale european war with russia, followed by other counties on both sides.

US will be forced to join and millions of its citizen will die in WW3.
2 comments
PeterHolzwarth 365 days ago
Alternate prediction: Iran - a country detested in much of the middle east - getting nuclear weapons will quickly lead to proliferation as other middle east countries feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs to counter the threat of Iran.

This is why the west has been working to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions for decades.

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ericmay 365 days ago
Why would there be more migrants to Europe from Iran?
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hkpack 365 days ago
The same reason there were millions of refugees from Syria or Libya or Ukraine or because of any other instability in the region.

There is just no much other places for people to run when shit hits fan.

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ericmay 365 days ago
Maybe, but the EU has different policies and a different understanding of immigration now compared to say 2010-2023, right? Also those countries you mentioned are a bit closer to Europe compared to Iran.

But I’m also not sure that the situations are comparable. In the case of Ukraine which is probably most similar to Iran from an economic standpoint, had many refugees who were temporarily fleeing Russian aggression but planned to return to Ukraine. Iran, especially if/when it’s out from under sanctions has a more robust economy and geopolitical forces going for it, versus Libya or Syria, in my view.

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hkpack 365 days ago
It won’t matter what the policies are as the majority of refugees will try to get to the EU illegally.

Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed.

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ericmay 365 days ago
It will matter because they can have policies like “stricter border control” to stop legal or illegal immigration. It’s like Pakistan and how they closed their border to refugees from Iran.

> Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed.

Sure it depends on what all happens, but my point was it is different than Syria or Libya in many aspects.

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Ray20 365 days ago
>It won’t matter what the policies are as the majority of refugees will try to get to the EU illegally.

But policies directly influence people's motivation to become illegal migrants in a particular country.

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