[panic]

The problem with adult-only transition is that it dooms trans people (at least, those who go on HRT) to go through two puberties, which has visible physical effects that then have to be undone or worked around (breast growth, facial hair, deeper voice, etc.). The ideal for most people is that you'd just go through one.

[Manuel_D]

The issue with this framing is that it ignores blockers' influence on desistence rates. Without blockers, 60-90% of kids presenting with gender dysphoria desist in cross sex gender identity by adulthood. But when put on blockers, nearly 100% continue living as the cross sex gender.

Even with a suppressed puberty, being transgender is extremely hard with high rates of depression and suicide. Any responsible analysis of the aggregate benefits of prescribing blockers needs to factor in the rates of desistence with and without blockers, but proponents of blockers almost always try to frame this discussion as though all kids with gender dysphoria persist in a cross sex gender. And indeed many try to claim that desistence is a "myth", despite most research into the topic.

[seethedeaduu]

This is why I hate online "debates". Because over and over people will repeat the same stuff that have been debunked thousands of times before.

The DSM criteria for gender dysphoria aren't particularly useful when you are diagnosing kids that play with dolls despite not expressing a trans identity or wish to switch sexes by themselves.

In addition to that, when you are dealing with a conversion therapist it is only natural to depress, but this doesn't mean that it's healthy for you eeither mentally or physically. This is something that was forced onto me as well.

Finally, you seem to be considering transitioning to be inherently something that should be avoided, otherwise why would less kids desisting be considered a negative?

[Manuel_D]

The same criteria used to approve patients for puberty blockers were used in the study. Heck, the author of the study helped write the DSM criteria for gender dysphoria. This is not at all "debunked", as much as activists try to insist that it is

Transition is indeed something that should be avoided if a patient can become comfortable in a same sex gender identity, because even with a suppressed puberty trans people have negative health outcomes across a variety of measures. To say that transition is best avoided if possible isn't a moral judgment against trans people, it's an accurate statement about the disparities in health outcomes.

This is a simplistic model, but imagine trans people have 10% risk of suicide if they don't get blockers, 5% if they do, and cis people have 1%. If I have a cohort of 10 patients with gender dysphoria 8 will desist and 2 will persist without prescribing blockers. And if you do prescribe blockers all of them will persist and transition. The former achieves the optimal health outcomes for the group as a whole. Again this is hugely simplistic, as suicide is not the only healthcare outcome we care about, but it illustrates that desistence rates are relevant to measuring whether blockers improve overall health outcomes.

Of course ideally we'd be able to know which patients will and won't persist. Psychologists attempted to do this for decades, but were never able to reliably predict which patients would and would not persist. People like to point to the extremely low rates of desistence among people prescribed puberty blockers as proof that psychiatrist are predicting correctly. But of course it's also consistent with blockers serving as a determining factor in persistence, and not merely offering "time to think".

[a_shovel]

The fact that you think 90% desistence is credible discredits you.

Most people who pass by a bus stop don't get on a bus, but if they stop and wait at a bus stop then the probability they soon get on a bus is above 90%. Do you think standing at a bus stop caused them to get on a bus?

[Manuel_D]

First of all, thank you for being upfront about the fact that your rejection of these studies is not based on their methodology, but because your don't like their results.

It's more like I have two different buses. When kids get on bus A, ~80% of them arrive at destination X and 20% at destination Y. When kids bet on bus B, 2% of them arrive at destination X and 98% of them arrive at destination Y. It sure looks like bus B isn't merely affording the kids "time to think" but is in fact altering their destination, does it not?

The patients in the study are diagnosed with the same criteria for gender dysphoria in the DSM. Heck, the author in the study I linked wrote the criteria for gender dysphoria in the latest iteration of DSM. I'm always puzzled by people who insist that the study was including patients that weren't actually experiencing gender dysphoria.

[a_shovel]

It's less that I "don't like" the results and more that the results are completely unrealistic. Trans people tend to make friend groups with other trans people, and I trust that they would notice if on average 90% of their friends stopped being trans.

I don't get your bus analogy. Surely the people who get on bus B which goes to destination Y do so because they want to get to destination Y? The act of getting on the bus doesn't cause them to want to go its destination.

[Manuel_D]

It's not the child picking the bus. The choice of whether a medical professional chooses to affirm a patient or take a neutral, observational stance is a choice made by the medical professional, not the patient.

And how does that choice seem to affect the outcome? When gender dysphoric children are met with a neutral model of care that primarily seeks to observe the child, about 4 in 5 desist by young adulthood. When they're affirmed, and especially if put on chemical treatment to suppress puberty, 98% or more persist with a trans identity. Even with a suppressed puberty, transgender people experience worse health outcomes than cis people across a variety of measure. To say that the former approach is a better healthcare outcome in aggregate is not a denigration of trans people but a recognition of the challenges they face. To justify affirmation, the improvement has to be demonstrated not only against an adult transition, but also against the population that desist and live life as cis people.

The studies presented above took a sample of the patients that visited a a clinic that voiced distress of their gender over the span of a period of time - the majority of them meeting the criteria for gender dysphoria in the DSM - and tracked which of them desisted or persisted in expressing a non-cis gender identity decades or more after the fact (average time from first visit to last follow up was 13 years). The lowest rate of desistance was 70%, 3 out of the 4 were above 80%.

To call the results of a study "unrealistic" indicates that one already knows a "realistic" result would be. This is essentially admitting to bias approach to the data: if it doesn't conform to your predetermined "real" result, and your criticism is solely based on that and not any methods in the study. By comparison, the studies that show extremely low rates of desistance are either studies with kids on blockers, or they are not cohort studies. E.g. studies recruiting respondents from the internet is vastly more susceptible to reporting bias than taking the group of patients visiting a gender clinic over the course of a year.

If you want to actually post and discuss a study finding high rates of persistence under a neutral model of care, I'd be very interested in reading. But my approach towards deciding what a realistic result is leans more heavily towards published research than anecdotal claims.

[viamiraia]

> Without blockers, 60-90% of kids presenting with gender dysphoria desist in cross sex gender identity by adulthood. But when put on blockers, nearly 100% continue living as the cross sex gender.

You say "most research" shows this. From which source(s) do you draw these claims? If I recall correctly there were a lot of methodological issues with drawing this type of conclusion from those studies.

[Manuel_D]

This is one of the more recent studies: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8039393/

The desistence rate for this study was 87%. Most other studies fall in the range of >70%

> At the time of follow-up, using different metrics (e.g., clinical interview, maternal report, dimensional measurement of gender dysphoria, a DSM diagnosis of GID, etc.), these studies provided information on the percentage of boys who continued to have gender dysphoria (herein termed “persisters”) and the percentage of boys who did not (herein termed “desisters”).2 Of the 53 boys culled from the relatively small sample size studies (Bakwin, Davenport, Kosky, Lebovitz, Money and Russo, Zuger), the percentage classified as persisters was 9.4% (age range at follow-up, 13–30 years). In Green (47), the percentage of persisters was 2% (total n = 44; Mean age at follow-up, 19 years; range, 14–24); in Wallien and Cohen-Kettenis (52), the percentage of persisters was 20.3% (total n = 59; Mean age at follow-up, 19.4 years; range, 16–28); and in Steensma et al. (51), the percentage of persisters was 29.1% (total n = 79; Mean age at follow-up, 16.1 years; range, 15–19). Across all studies, the percentage of persisters was 17.4% (total N = 235), with a range from 0 to 29.1%.3

You can find studies that find a very low rate of desistence, in the single digits. But those are among children that were put on puberty blockers.

[d6e]

Those studies were mostly from the 80s-2000s when things were really different. Kids were often referred just for being gender nonconforming (like boys playing with dolls), not necessarily having serious gender dysphoria. Plus the treatment back then was often trying to make kids more "gender typical" - which obviously might push some kids toward appearing to "desist" even if they still had gender issues. Many of the kids in those studies didn't even meet what we'd now consider the criteria for gender dysphoria. So saying "80% of trans kids desist" might be more like "80% of gender nonconforming kids don't turn out to be trans" - which is pretty different.

[Manuel_D]

The majority of the sample met the criteria for gender dysphoria as listed in the DSM. Gender non-conforming behavior is just one criterion, multiple of which need to be met to categorized as gender dysphoric. This is the same set of criteria that a medical professional would use to approve a patient for puberty blockers.

The predominant approach back then was not to suppress incongruent gender identity. The approach was to take a neutral stance and neither foster not suppress the patient's gender identity, called "watchful waiting".

[d6e]

> The predominant approach back then was not to suppress incongruent gender identity. The approach was to take a neutral stance and neither foster not suppress the patient's gender identity, called "watchful waiting".

The clinic involved in this study actively was known for conversion therapy. Zenneth Zucker is one of the authors and is famous for it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Zucker#Therapeutic_int...

The head of the child and adolescent gender identity clinic at Toronto’s Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Dr. Kenneth Zucker, has made a career promising the parents of intersexed and transgender children that he can make them “normal”. His method, called reparative therapy, in which children are pushed into assigned gender roles and discouraged from behaving or dressing in a way that’s counter to their ‘assigned’ sex, was once standard practice, but in recent years, has been increasingly scrutinized. A 2003 report in the Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry called his techniques “something disturbingly close to reparative therapy for homosexuals,” and author Phyllis Burke has questioned the idea that transgendered children should be treated as mentally ill, saying, “The diagnosis of GID in children, as supported by Zucker and [his colleague J. Michael Bailey] Bradley, is simply child abuse.”

https://www.queerty.com/dr-kenneth-zuckers-war-on-transgende...

I imagine a conversion therapy clinic would issue a study that their conversion therapy works. I wonder how long those kids stayed "desisted" or if they were just pressured into the closet again only to transition later in life.

[jart]

Yeah but if you're a trans woman for instance, there are benefits to going through some male puberty. You understand men better. You understand yourself better, to know that's not what you want. Also you never go through a puberty in exactly the same way as a cis woman. A lot of the effects are reversible, especially if you start at 18, since I don't think maleness fully develops until at least age 25. Treating people under 18 is a politically losing issue. When policies around it changed, that tipped the scales from the public ignoring trans women or seeing them as victims, towards many members of the public seeing them as monsters who are out to get their children. It's illegal in 27 states and the White House calls it child mutilation. Can you imagine what a burden it must be to live in a world where many ignorant individuals hold such a perception of you, due to no fault of your own, but rather physical characteristics about yourself you can't change?

[hemogloben]

> Treating people under 18 is a politically losing issue.

Treating people as 'a politically losing issue' is weird to me. There are certainly some nuances to <18 transgender care, but that statement doesn't address any of them and just suggests we embrace political cowardice.

> When policies around it changed, that tipped the scales from the public ignoring trans women or seeing them as victims, towards many members of the public seeing them as monsters who are out to get their children.

This is worse. It wasn't because politics around it changed, it was because republicans (upset that they could no longer target gay people), reused the same crappy arguments against trans people, and then wrapped it in a pedophilic flag.

The change in policy is just effective propaganda making people concerned that random doctors are allowing their children to get sex change operations without consent, when that isn't how ANY of this works. Children <18 can socially transition, get puberty blockers, and MAYBE get hormone treatment. WITH parent consent.

The fact that the media and comments like yours continues to pretend its a reasonable 'discussion' perpetuates the nonsense.

[jart]

We? Political cowardice? Have you considered that trans people might just want to live their lives, and not be force-teamed into your war? Trans has been a thing since the 1950s and that whole time flew under society's radar, happy minding their own business and not be noticed, until around 2020 when your war started.

[hemogloben]

Trans has been a thing since a whole lot longer than that.

Discussions like this often end up at WW2 and that's not what I'm saying here, but Germany in the 1920s was essentially the Gay/Trans hub of the world until it wasn't: https://www.netflix.com/title/81331646.

But even that's not the beginning of 'trans'.

The reason trans isn't 'flying under the radar', isn't because trans people got too proud. Its because one political party decided to shine the magnifying glass to turn trans into a political issue.

[Alghranokk]

Have you considered that trans people just want to live their lives? As we all know, transitioning, social, hormonal, reduces incidence of suicide. This also applies to under 18 individuals. Should such options and approaches suddenly be revoked and discontinued, it will naturally follow that some will die who otherwise would not have.

How many do consider reasonable to sacrifice in the name of political expedience?

[jart]

Back in the days when there were gatekeepers, doctors would actually refuse to treat you for gender dysphoria if you were suicidal. Because suicidal people aren't thinking clearly enough to be making such an important choice, and their actions could be seen as abusing the treatment as a means of self-harm. I think people also make that argument because they feel they need to be manipulative so that others will let them do what they want to do. If the world were more enlightened, we wouldn't have such issues.

[seethedeaduu]

> happy minding their own business

Trans women until VERY recently were forced to go into prostitution and were excluded by the wider society. Trans people were not force teamed into any war, or rather, this is partially right, they were forcefully forced to pick a team by the side that aims to take away their bodily rights, protections, and mark them as undesirables again.

[actualwitch]

As a person born in a country on the very same trajectory Trump is pushing US into now, let me share some insights written in our blood with you. In my country, there were people who thought like you, thinking you can give them an inch and that they will be satisfied by it. But the truth is they always need more to keep the fire of hate going. First, they will take the <18 care because it was the point with weakest support. Next, when that is done, the weakest point becomes your legal identity. Then, your legal care at all. Then other lgbtqi+ groups. There is this poem about "first they came for _", this is a great illustration of it in action. It ends with transgender people pushed into conversion therapy or exile, like in my country. You should really look into how life for us was like in "1950s" and up to now, because if you don't fight for this happy life you want to live they will just take it without asking you, like they did throughout the history. The only answer to authoritarianism is to make sure there are no weak points to attack, stand united and you have a path to win. You can learn from our mistakes, or you can learn from yours. The choice is up to you.

[jart]

There's no weak point here in California. Even Trump bends the knee to our governor.

I hope you make it out here one day, if you haven't already.

[actualwitch]

Based on my perception of where US is now in terms of government, where its going and how seriously people are taking what is happening, I don't plan on going anywhere near it today or in the ~10 years to come. That is an optimistic timeline where trumpism is eventually stomped, btw. If you think it matters what individual states legislate when the entire country's government is being transformed into authoritarianism before your eyes, you are well on your way into pessimist timeline.

[HK-NC]

Odd that the idea of a child making permanent life changing decisions about their body hasn't been mentioned, you're so convinced you're right about all this.

[Llamamoe]

> Also you never go through a puberty in exactly the same way as a cis woman. A lot of the effects are reversible, especially if you start at 18, since I don't think maleness fully develops until at least age 25. Treating people under 18 is a politically losing issue.

Imagine trying to make the same argument about forcing cis women to go through male liberty to "understand men better". It's ridiculous.

Further, studies show that the main predictor of bone structure is whether you started HRT before or after the beginning of puberty, and that outcomes get worse the more it progresses. At 18 you still get some change, but you really need to either block puberty or start HRT before it for optimal outcomes.

And if you don't want to give HRT to trans children, at least get them on puberty blockers. There's pretty much zero evidence suggesting they do anything worse than temporary and reversible reductions in bone density.

[jart]

The first rule of medicine is to do no harm. It's an ethically grey area to intervene with something the body is doing naturally that isn't putting the person's life at risk. The technology available today for gender transition is crude compared to what will be available in the future. I know intersex people who are pretty unhappy because medical professionals chose the wrong intervention in childhood. Only adults of sufficient mental faculties who are under the care of a doctor should be making these tradeoffs. That's how trans worked for ~70 years before recent political activism forced the medical industry to loosen its standards.

[seethedeaduu]

Kids can't consent to being forcefully and irreversibly mutilated under the wrong puberty.

[Llamamoe]

Puberty blockers are routinely prescribed for other indications, and there are countless other treatments with more risks that are prescribed to children every day.

[viamiraia]

As a trans woman who has talked with many other trans women, the majority, including me would prefer not having gone through male puberty at all. The benefits do not outweigh the gender dysphoria. We would love to go through puberty the exact same way as a cis woman, but it's not like we don't realize HRT and current methods have room for improvement.

The effects are only partially reversible, and only after tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in surgeries, hair removal, voice training, other treatments.

I understand it's a politically losing issue now, but I believe it's due to misinformation, outrage porn, and unfair application of rigor, from mostly the anti-trans side but even allies and trans folk themselves sometimes. To that end I hope this does not feel like an attack - let me know if you have any questions that you think my perspective would help.

[jart]

Look forward to the future. Superintelligence will invent better treatments for trans people. However there's not going to be any better treatments if trans becomes illegal due to the backlash caused by folks agitating for the use of the comparatively crude treatments available today on children. Trump has setup a legal regime for annihilating everyone in the medical community who's been providing trans care. You better hope there are still people around who are willing to help when the dust settles from all this political fighting.

[znpy]

> Treating people under 18 is a politically losing issue.

This is the key point, imho.

In the transgender rights discourse no margin for error is admitted, but there is like in any other human field (of course).

There have been several cases of people being given a "gender disphoria" blanket diagnosis (eg: the case of Chlementine Breen[1]), which later caused issues. And of course some of those people are transitioning back and started doing activism against the trans rights movement.

It's weird that minors are not allowed to do something trivial as drinking a beer or driving a car yet they're allowed to take on irreversible changes (sometimes involving surgery) to their bodies.

This is hurtful to all people involved, and until this point is not understood, the attrition will continue.

[1]: that case is a textbook example of "no margin error admitted" because in order for their voice to be heard they had to resort to talking to the extreme opposite political side.

[seethedeaduu]

The convenience of a hypothetical cis peerson is worth more than the lives of 100 trans people it seems.

The wrong puberty is irreversible mutilation. It's not weird at all given that kids are being given treatment for cancer.

[znpy]

> The convenience of a hypothetical cis peerson is worth more than the lives of 100 trans people it seems.

Complete nonsense. The ratio is generally the inverse: there are 100 cis people and 1 trans person. Those are just the numbers, otherwise trans people wouldn't be a considered a minority.

Actually you're the one arguing that the convenience of one trans person is worth more than the life of 100 cis people.

[seethedeaduu]

I didn't know that the ratio of cis to trans people who were "falsely" "convinced" to take hormones were 100 to 1.

Having the right hormones and not being permenantly mutilated by the wrong ones isn't simply "a convenience".

[calico96]

Those of us transitioning with hormones willingly go through puberty twice.

Damn the social consequences, it's who we are. If transitioning were available as a minor it would greatly reduce suffering.

[seethedeaduu]

This is true, but also, going through the wrong puberty and being forced to live as the wrong gender afterwards is also an inherently traumatic experience, even if it would be possible to fully reverse the mutilation caused by the first puberty.

[Fire-Dragon-DoL]

Is mutilation the right term here? Mutilation is altering the physical appearance. Puberty by default follows what the body was designed to do, it seems confusing calling it mutilation: I couldn't tell if surgery is involved or this is just talking about the natural process of going through puberty