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The part about productivity also remind me that we still often pay for handmade goods, despite them being often a common industrialized good. For example, if you enjoy cooking, or it is your job, you might be willing to pay for an artisan knife, even though you can buy a good knife for a few bucks.
Same with clothes. They are extremely industrialized, but there is still a lot of tailor living of making bespoke clothe. We might do it for no other reason than an appreciation of the craft, but a lot of time, it is driven by a desire for high quality (and/or customization). This makes me wonder if one day we will see artisan software developer (I mean, the idea of software craftmanship is already here). LLM&Co are good at outputting a lot of code very quickly, but they are often not good at producing quality code. And I sincerely doubt that it will get any better, this seems to be more or less a consequence of the core technology making LLM. So unless we have a significant paradigm shift, I don't think it will improve much more. It already feels like we reach the point of diminishing return on this specific tech. So what about making smaller software, but better software, for client wanting nothing but the upmost quality ? Just like bladesmith, we will have a bunch of new fancy tool at our disposal to be able to code better and faster, but the whole point of the exercice will still to be in control of the process and not give all the decision power to a machine. |
The reason I think we might not see this for software even though we do other goods is that the output of a developer is not code it is software. It's possible for good (fit for purpose, easy to use, fast, pretty, whatever metric) software to be built on bad code. The craft of the code is not necessarily apparent in the product in the same way it can be with physical goods.
Whether or not LLMs can consistently output "good" software is less clear to me and I'm not interested in trying to make a prediction about it. But if they do I don't see "hand crafted" code being a thing. No one cares about code.