[blagie]

The curve is getting steeper, yes. That's not a contrast to the "AI will replace programmers" rhetoric.

Steeper means: higher at the top. Lower on the bottom.

Right now, AI can do the job of the bottom large percentage of programmers better than those programmers. Look up how a disruptive S-curve works. At the end, we may be left with one programmer overseeing an AI "improving" itself. Or perhaps zero. Or perhaps one per project. We don't know yet.

Good analogue is automation. Mass-scale manufacturing jobs were replaced by a handful of higher-paid, higher-skilled jobs. Certain career classes disappeared entirely.