[lrasinen]

22.8 €/MWh is just 2.28 c/kWh and that's a very low bar to clear.

Just yesterday we had 6 hours of negative prices, followed shortly after by one hour at 2.66 c/kWh and four more over 3 c. Friday had swings from 0.4 c to 13 c.

(All prices with VAT included)

And this is in summer when energy consumption is low, the swings will intensify when the heating season starts.

[metalrain]

Yes, very easy for most days to find some hours of that price differential. However my calculation needs it to happen all the time for 10 years in row.

Alternatively: 6 hours with 45 €/MWh differential, 3 hours with 90 €/MWh differential or one hour with 270 €/MWh differential.

There are several days when some of these happen, but I don't think its every day for ten years straight. There are lots of days when price moves in tight range or even if there is some movement there isn't enough of it.

[lrasinen]

I took the electricity spot prices for the first three months of this year (so that it covers the cold period), and ran a simple simulation on it.

The simulation model assumes we're charging during the 12 cheapest hours, and discharging during the most expensive 12 h, and then calculated the average price differential per day. This is of course suboptimal, since the day-ahead prices are available.

The mean differential in the data is 56.5 €/MWh, and on 64% of the days the differential is over 22.8 €/MWh. 10%, 50% and 90% percentiles are 3, 54 and 119.

So at least during the winter time (when consumption is greatest) you'd expect to hit the price goal more often than not.

Adding the rest of the year up to now drops the mean to 52 €/MWh and the median down to 38 €/MWh. Still pretty good.

(As for cherry-picking the data: this year was easily available and didn't dig too hard for older data, but it was one of the mildest winters in recent years.)