[haxton]

Always treat startup equity as 0 until you've sold it.

[edoceo]

Correct. The motivation for equity comp should be more of "I want to change the world" than the "I want big money". The odds are very against it.

Here's some older stats (2017) https://berkonomics.com/?p=2899

But searching, you'll find loads more studies on startup/angel/seed.

It's like, optimistically, 1/20

[Oarch]

Good advice! Thankfully I do want to change the world (for the better I hasten to add) and so far so good.