| > You seem to be nitpicking on semantics for no real reason. I guess I didn't interpret your statement about "several decades of almost zero low-interest rates" between 1990 and 2020 loosely enough. > You also seem to have messed up your math Your only issue seems to be with taxes and I explicitly mentioned that I didn't consider them, just like I didn't consider reinvestment until the end of the ten years period and I used rounded down yields and rounded up inflation numbers. You say taxes can be anywhere from 10% to 37% - but choose to apply 37% to show the "error". Let's consider taxes. 40% if you want, why not. You buy in January 1990 a 10-year bond with a 8.36% coupon trading at par for $1k [for simplicity I use the monthly averages from https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/226/tnc_qh_pars_1.xls]. You get $83.6 per year, after taxes at 40% you keep $50.2. Let's say you put them in a box because you are too lazy to reinvest them. You will get then the $1000 back for a total of $1502. $1000 in January 1990 are $1325 in January 2000. $1502 are more than $1325. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.) -- For 2000-2010 (6.88%) you have $1000 + 10 $68.8 (100%-40%) = $1413. $1000 in January 2000 are $1284 in January 2010. $1413 are more than $1284. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.) -- For 2010-2020 (3.87%) you have $1000 + 10 $38.7 (100%-40%) = $1232. $1000 in January 2010 are $1190 in January 2020. $1232 are more than $1190. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.) -- It seems that you agree that over the three decades being discussed bonds did better than inflation (even after taxes) so I'm not sure why do you think I messed something up or what were you trying to explain to me. > You still haven't broken even in purchasing power from the previous year You're ignoring that the bond has appreciated from the previous year keeping purchasing power intact. |