[dragonwriter]

> As a progressive, it seems like the Democrats always have Senate spoilers...

With Republicans usually being dominant in a number of states, if Democrats have a Senate majority, it is usually both narrow and dependent on a very small number of Democratic and/or Dem-leading moderate independent Senators from Republican-majority states who vote with the party on leadership, but are soft (or firmly opposed to the progressive preference) on a number of issues important to progressives.

If the US were approximately an equal democracy, this might be less of an issue.

[Braxton1980]

>If the US were approximately an equal democracy, this might be less of an issue.

How? Evenly divided voters and representatives are the issue. Each side can barely afford to lose 10% or so during votes

[dragonwriter]

No, the reason the "there is always an in-party Senate spoiler" effect (when they have a Senate majority) seems to be more true of Democrats is because it is more true of Democrats, and the reason is that when the two parties in rough balance by popular support (or even rough balance in Presidential electoral prospects, which has the same directional bias as the Senate but of lesser magnitude), the Republican Party has a systematic edge in dominance of states, which translates into a systematic advantage in the Senate, which means that when the Democrats have a Senate majority, it tends to have a decisive segment in red-state Democratic Senators who are unreliable on key priorities.

The issue being discussed in the Senate is not a symmetric issue resulting from near balance in support between the parties.

[K0balt]

It’s also because republicans politically punish dissent, while it is more tolerated in the Democratic Party. The consequences of “disloyalty” are higher in the Republican Party.

[hedora]

This might change. After party leadership got 20% of democratic senators to vote for trump’s procedural blank check, the party’s approval rating dropped to 27%.

If it doesn’t change, I suspect the party will split.

[K0balt]

I wonder which is better, the totalitarian left, or the totalitarian right?

Since technology has empowered centralized power while providing the tools easily repurposed to poison democracy, I suspect that democracy as we understand it will fail to compete with data driven central planning.

So maybe the question we should be asking is what flavor of total surveillance and centralized control do we want to live under?

[rayiner]

> If the US were approximately an equal democracy, this might be less of an issue

Equal to what?

[paulryanrogers]

Equal in voting rights. Gerrymandering has been perfected by Republicans. Through that they manage to dilute votes of the opposition. Other measures discourage voters likely to vote against them, like people who cannot easily take time off to vote in person or who have changed their name. Blocking rank choice and maintaining first past the post also disenfranchise third parties, and reinforces the power of incumbents.

Trump himself admitted it's better for Republicans when fewer people vote.

[Kamq]

> Equal in voting rights. Gerrymandering has been perfected by Republicans. Through that they manage to dilute votes of the opposition.

This thread is talking about the Senate. The senate isn't gerrymandered. Both senators are state-wide races.

If you want to view it that way, you can view the senate as "pre-gerrymandered". But the last time that was an option was in 1959, and both of those are just "the entire area the US owned, but wasn't a state yet. To get senate gerrymandering, you have to go back to 1912 and the admission of New Mexico/Arizona.

[vineyardmike]

> If you want to view it that way, you can view the senate as "pre-gerrymandered".

That is quite explicitly the history of the US Senate (and House), FWIW.

The Connecticut Compromise was reached to give low-populations states outsized legislative power in the senate. This is the main reason the senate exists.

Building on that, the 3/5th compromise was reached as part of this to give slave states outsized legislative power in the house.

The state of Maine used to be part of Massachusetts, but it was later set up as an independent state in order to increase the number of anti-slavery states in the senate (the Missouri compromise).

[Brybry]

Gerrymandering can affect voter sentiment and trigger polling location changes during redistricting, both of which can affect voter turnout[1][2][3] (though the research doesn't seem conclusive on the effect).

And thinking about it more, though I haven't seen if there are studies on it: there are probably manpower/fundraising effects from gerrymandering.

If you're able to protect your political power in one area that probably better enables you to amass resources to use in the area you can't gerrymander.

But all that said, both parties practice gerrymandering and I don't think there's strong evidence of a significant advantage over a major party from current gerrymandering at the national level.

[1] https://da.lib.kobe-u.ac.jp/da/kernel/90008864/90008864.pdf

[2] https://electionlab.mit.edu/articles/gerrymandering-turnout-...

[3] https://stateline.org/2022/05/20/check-your-polling-place-re...

[paulryanrogers]

> On a percentage basis, over three times as many districts were competitive in states where independent commissions drew maps as in states where Republicans drew maps.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-...

[xyzzyz]

That’s just confusing cause and effect. If your seats are safe, you have no reason to agree to forming an independent commission. The same is true in both heavily blue and heavily red states. Are districts more competitive in states where Democrats draw maps? I don’t think so.

[jimbob45]

?? Both sides happily gerrymander. It’s been around since 1812 and both sides are equally guilty at this point.

[paulryanrogers]

I didn't say democrats were innocent. I said Republicans perfected the (ab)use of districting.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-...

[Braxton1980]

Governors are elected by popular vote.

[tomrod]

Hell, just first past the post would eviscerate the current parties.

[tomrod]

Argh. Too late to edit. Something else outside first past the post* like ranked choice voting.

[Filligree]

Which is why they’ll never vote for it. Such changes are remarkable rare. :(