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by trod1234
375 days ago
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This isn't useful or correct, and ends up being a bit circular getting into the weeds. The focus should be that the normal math formula for bond valuation doesn't account for yearly real or projected inflation. Almost everyone I have met doesn't know how to modify the standard formula correctly unless they've already done it at some point in the past. Its not a trivial exercise. You have to understand the formulas well enough to modify them to account for the loss in purchasing power that compounds yearly, as a difference between the interest rate and real inflation over the bond terms. Most years, inflation has been well above that 2% margin dramatically impacting the rate of return or real yield. |
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The formulas do not help you at all with the knowing. or not knowing, with being able to "predict" the past vs. being able to predict the future! They make assumptions.
I would make the claim my statement is useful for what I said, which was for somebody looking back at a decision of the long ago past with hindsight knowledge.
The post was not about somebody evaluating different investments either.
Oh and thanks, I guess, for completely disregarding that my comment was much more generalized? You threw away the vast majority of it.