[potatolicious]

I think this pretty substantially overstates ChatGPT's stickiness. Just because something is widely (if not universally) known doesn't mean it's universally used, or that such usage is sticky.

For example, I had occasion to chat with a relative who's still in high school recently, and was curious what the situation was in their classrooms re: AI.

tl;dr: LLM use is basically universal, but ChatGPT is not the favored tool. The favored tools are LLMs/apps specifically marketed as study/homework aids.

It seems like the market is fine with seeking specific LLMs for specific kinds of tasks, as opposed to some omni-LLM one-stop-shop that does everything. The market has already and rapidly moved beyond from ChatGPT.

Not to mention I am willing to bet that Gemini has radically more usage than OpenAI's models simply by virtue of being plugged into Google Search. There are distribution effects, I just don't think OpenAI has the strongest position!

I think OpenAI has some first-mover advantage, I just don't think it's anywhere near as durable (nor as large) as you're making it out to be.