[bcrosby95]

This would be at least the third time in history we've tried to shunt writing code to low paid labor. We'll see if it's successful this time.

The problem tends to be that small details affect large details which affect small details. If you aren't good at both you're usually shit at both.

[mlinhares]

The problem wasn't low paid labor, it was just incompetent labor. You can find competent developers in all these countries offering lower pay, India, Brazil, Romania, Poland, China, Pakistan, its just that they would already be hired by other higher paying companies and what is left for the ones that are looking for the lowest paid possible workers are the incompetent ones.

[Suppafly]

>its just that they would already be hired by other higher paying companies and what is left for the ones that are looking for the lowest paid possible workers are the incompetent ones

Reminds of me working in IT. One company tried to outsource my job to India five different times before they were mostly successful at it. The companies that are successful aren't the ones that assume it'll cost 1/10th the price, they are the ones that know it'll cost 60+% of the price and still require some handholding.

If you're hiring on price alone, you're already selecting the pool that doesn't contain the most competent labor.

[ryukoposting]

"Never buy the cheapest version of something." I don't remember who told me that, but it was good advice. There's always a reason.

[wvoch235]

IMO attempts to make it low paid work will fail, just like almost every STEM profession. But... the number of engineers that we need who operate as "power multipliers" on team will continue to decrease. Many startup and corporate teams already aren't needing junior/mid level engineers any longer.

They just need "drivers", senior/lead/staff engineers that can run independent tracks. AI becomes the "power multiplier" in the teams who amplify the effects of the "driver".

Many people pretend that 10x engineers don't exist. But anyone who has worked on an adequately high performing team at a large (or small) company knows that skill, and quite frankly intelligence, operate on power laws.

The bottom 3 quartiles will be virtually unemployable. Talent in the top quartile will be impossible to find because they're all employed. Not all that unlike today, though which quartile you fall into is largely going to depend on how "great" of an engineer you are AND how effectively you use AI.

As this happens, the tap of new engineers who are learning how to make it into the top quartile, will cutoff for everyone except for those who are passionate/sadistic enough to programming without AI, then learn to program WITH AI.

Meanwhile the number of startups disrupting corporate monopolies will increase as the cost of labor goes down due to lower headcount requirements. Lower head counts will lead to better team communication and in general business efficiency.

At some point the upper quartile will get automated too. And with that, corporate moats evaporate to solo-entrepreneurs and startups. The ship is sinking, but the ocean is about to boil too. When economic formulas start dividing by zero, we can be pretty sure that we can't predict the impact.

[whattheheckheck]

Solopreneurs won't be able to effectively lobby govt regulators

[wvoch235]

i have significantly more faith in school children regulating an insane asylum

[tom_m]

Someone told me AI was like having a bunch of junior coders. You have to be very explicit in telling it what to do and have to go through several iterations to get it right. Though it was cheaper.