My concern is that it doesn't just change war, but security in general. I don't think that we have realized the real implications of this technology, especially the fiber optic drones.
> I don't think that we have realized the real implications of this technology
Define “we.” The defence community has been deeply engaged with what’s going on in Ukraine since ‘22. (And the supremacy of sensor fusion in India’s air battle with Pakistan.)
We as a society. I don't want to write down my detailed thoughts on this, but anyone with a red team mind can imagine the implications for personal security.
Kim Stanley Robinson wrote down pretty bluntly what society might do against the vicious nasty foes of the world with drones, in Ministry for the Future. A book very well reviewed by for example Bill Gates. https://www.gatesnotes.com/books/science-fiction/reader/the-...
Alas it feels optimistic to hope that asymmetric confrontation would be downtrodden people of the earth against bad world damaging take-take-take pests. Merely a science fiction. The world having powerful forces working strongly for the world rather than self interest: hardly believable science fiction.
It's cheaper now, it's easier to pull off remotely, but most airports already were vulnerable to terrorist attacks. It feels like the primary mechanism that protected civilian airports is that the weapons you'd use aren't easy to get, and states didn't want to supply their sponsored terror groups with that kind of weaponry because it'd be dangerously close to an act of war and very hard to deny.
Individually, you were never safe by default. Your safety depends on not being an interesting target.
So you know, if instead of being one guy he was a substantial portion of intelligence operatives of a nation-state with significant industrial resources backing him?
Ukraine isn't wealthy, but it's still an entire country.
Bluntly: nothing is safe from drones + a determined operator. No airfield, no aircraft on the ground, no government institution. Drones have changed warfare forever and Ukraine is writing the manual for future operations. What happened today was unthinkable 10 years ago. As one side effect I predict that at least in some places private drone ownership will become illegal. Think about it: for a few hundred K you get to take out a good chunk of a nuclear power's strike capability.
We’re in a strategic imbalance. Cold War air defences were trained on high-value targets, like strategic bombers and spy planes. So currently our air defences are overspecced for something like this.
Nothing about drones makes them inherently undetectable. You just need a different model. I suspect those should be commonplace within 20 years, potentially a decade.
> at least in some places private drone ownership will become illegal
I could see ownership being restricted in wartime. More likely is eager air defences shredding birds on perimeters.
Won't the cat and mouse game ultimately tilt to the side of defense? I imagine automated rifles are basically impossible to dodge. Automated rifles sound much more scary to me. Plant a rifle and wait a year, works on people and drones.
> Won't the cat and mouse game ultimately tilt to the side of defense?
Probably not. Most of the history of war is weapons getting stronger and stronger and defence getting harder and harder. E.g. in ancient times a shield or simple palisade could protect you, now even tanks and trenches are not safe. The days of being able to build a wall along a border and hold it against a peer adversary are long gone and not coming back.
To be fair, these planes were out in the open, protected by tires on the wings. If they were in simple hangars, this operation would have already been way harder.
Real implications are that once again you don’t want your personal shit being public, which will still take some while for gen.audience to understand about social media and all sorts of corporate surveillance.