[simianwords]

according to you, if a human makes a prediction with some probability estimate it is useless because the estimate itself is inaccurate (hence probability "estimate"). in reality nothing needs to be 100% accurate for it to be useful including the estimate of probability itself.

[gambiting]

It's weird to make an assumption about OPs position and argue with that instead of what they actually wrote.

Also, why make it so personal? I think it was a fair question to ask - you didn't answer how it works - just got weirdly defensive about it.

[simianwords]

hey that was not my intention, it was to bring to light that we assign probability estimates ourselves to our own predictions despite the estimates being not 100% accurate.