[ninetyninenine]

They said that for self driving cars for over 10 years.

10 years later we now have self driving cars. It’s the same shit with LLMs.

People will be bitching and complaining about how all the industry people are wrong and making over optimistic estimates and the people will be right. But give it 10 years and see what happens.

[nickserv]

From what I remember full self driving cars were a couple years off in 2010.

It took 10-15 years to get self driving cars in a specific country under specific weather conditions. A country that is perhaps the most car-friendly on the planet. Also, there are always people monitoring the vehicles, and that take control sometimes.

How many more years for waymo Quito or waymo Kolkata? What about just $europeanCapital?

Same with LLMs, I'm sure in 10 years they'll be good enough to replace certain specific tasks, to the detriment of recent graduates, especially those of artistic aspiration. Not sure they'll ever get to the point where someone who actually knows what they're doing doesn't need to supervise and correct.

[m_coder]

I am quite confident that a normal 16 year old will can still drive in 6 inches of snow better than the most advanced AI driven car. I am not sure the snow driving bit will ever be solved given how hard it is.

[ninetyninenine]

If you’ve never ridden in one I would try it. AI is a better driver then uber in general ask anyone who’s done both. There’s no snow where I live so it’s not a concern for me, you could be right about that.

But trust me in the next 6 months ai driving through snow will be 100% ready.

[quickthrowman]

> But trust me in the next 6 months ai driving through snow will be 100% ready.

I’ll believe it when I see Waymo expand into Buffalo or Syracuse.

Driving on unplowed roads with several inches of snow is challenging, sometimes you can’t tell where the road stops and the curb/ditch/median starts. Do you follow the tire tracks or somehow stay between the lane markers (which aren’t visible due to the snow)?

[tanseydavid]

Over and over again this pattern of theorizing:

"I am not sure that AI will ever be able to do XYZ given how hard of a problem it is."

Proves to be incorrect in the long run.

[abossy]

We must know very different 16-year olds.

[n8cpdx]

We only have good self driving cars with lidar and extreme pre-mapping steps. Which is fine but per some billionaire car makers’ metrics that’s not even close to good enough. And the billionaire’s cars have a tendency to randomly drive off the road at speed.