| Thank you for articulating this. I think it's what a lot of his supporters think is happening. What perplexes me are the following: 1) Is "The Art of the Deal" respected among actual business leaders and negotiators as a substantive contribution to negotiation tactics? 2) If what Trump is doing is in fact a highly effective tactic, how is it possible that so many people who are skilled at negotiation, skilled a business, far more wealthy and successful than Trump, etc., etc., fail to see the genius of it? I'm pretty sure that if there were actually something to it, at least some of those types of people would "come around" to supporting it and they would explain what he's doing to the American people (if it's right out of "The Art of the Deal" then clearly any negotiating adversary would be familiar with the tactic since the book is a short, quick read). 3) How would the negotiation tactics Trump is using be described/framed by traditional game theorists and tacticians? Suppose Trump is actually highly disciplined in the execution of a grand strategy, what would there be to object to, the tactic of acting unpredictably? Or would there be criticism of the downside risk of the strategy being unacceptable? 4) What has Trump or the US gained in the past from these kind of tactics? I'm serious when I say that I don't think Trump has improved the US negotiated position in any of the domains he's promised to. His revisions to NAFTA were trivial, his revisions to the Iran deal resulted in the US having a far weaker hand, his negotiations with N. Korea were inconsequential, and his negotiations (so far) with Mexico and Canada have seemingly harmed all parties and reduced trust, thus reducing the chances for a better outcome in the future. on Ukraine/Russia there is not really any negotiating to be done, it's more of a question of whether the US wants to keep spending money on an expensive and risky war that we are losing while pretending we are not actually in one. 5) In trade negotiations, what is the "back room"? I realize the US is opaque domestically and internationally about what is US "national interest", but typically with trade the incentives are extremely clear -- there are always domestic factions on both sides who are the relative winners or losers of any change to tariffs or trade policy, etc. |