[eru]

It's almost always good to ask about what evidence we have.

I'd say that our prior should be that there's more cheating. My logic:

Almost any good or service gets consumed more when its price drops (especially if quality also goes up). Cheating has gotten massively cheaper in terms of effort: you no longer have hire a ghostwriter for your essay, or laboriously plagiarise passages from the literature yourself.

[wilg]

That logic is the conventional wisdom, but I just want to know whether it's true empirically.