A)
all of this money being funneled into tech to build out trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure, a month over month increasing user base buying subscriptions for these llm services, every company buying seats for LLM because of the value that it provides - these people are wrong
B) yappers on hackernews that claim they derive no productivity boost out of llms while showing absolutely nothing about their workflow or method when the interface is basically a chat box with no guardrails - these people are wrong
Sorry I'm going to be it's B and you just suck at it
If you think blockchain is a comparable analogy, on the same timeline, you are orders of magnitude off
Actually by the numbers AI is already bigger than bitcoin in both adoption and market value, so I'm not sure if you are making the point that you think you're making.
Given how many times the tech industry as a whole has been collectively and expensively wrong about trends as they dominate the zeitgeist, I think that first option you gave is more damning than you think.
What is populist is rarely what is correct in this context.
Regarding A, first time on the hype train? VC and silicon valley funding is often completely divorced from any real value, and is one of the last places I’d look for reliable signal on quality.
Regardless, I’m sure it’s a little of A and a little of B, plus some of C) yappers on Hackernews who think that the majority of the work of software engineering is writing code, and who generally write code in sufficiently simple contexts for the LLMs to produce something equivalent to their normal output.
Honestly millions of nobodies buying a product from a tech company is basically proof it's nonsense, in my limited mind. Which one have they bought in droves that actually had a massive impact on you as a developer?
Can you give a detailed example of how LLMs have changed your entire process? Your experience does not match mine and I would genuinely like to know why. I would love to be more efficient.
LLM tooling is useful. I have been using it on a daily basis for at least a year.
I am maybe 10-20% more productive at certain tasks in the long run (which is pretty good!). Nowhere close to to the 10x or even 2x boost people are claiming.
If LLMS were really making software developers 10x more productive over the last year, we would be seeing massive shifts in the industry. In theory either 90% layoffs or 10x product velocity.
Agreed. The noisiest people are those saying "it makes everyone 100x more productive!" and those saying "it's useless, it makes everyone less productive!". But the boring truth is somewhere in between those extremes.
A) all of this money being funneled into tech to build out trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure, a month over month increasing user base buying subscriptions for these llm services, every company buying seats for LLM because of the value that it provides - these people are wrong
B) yappers on hackernews that claim they derive no productivity boost out of llms while showing absolutely nothing about their workflow or method when the interface is basically a chat box with no guardrails - these people are wrong
Sorry I'm going to be it's B and you just suck at it