| > I don't think it's much of an exaggeration to suggest that this is one of the most important open questions at the moment -- one which will likely be relatively winner-takes-all That makes the presumption that we are currently in a `winner-takes-all` scenario, and I'm not convinced that that is the case. I'm not sure what the criteria is for a winner-takes-all scenario, but it is not at all evident to me that there is one now, or ever will be. There is, as everyone says, no actual moat here: Google search had a moat, Windows Desktop had a moat, Apple phones had (and still have) a moat. LLM output currently has no moat, not even performance (both speed and accuracy) because the productivity difference between no-LLM and poor-LLM is about 100x the difference between poor-LLM and good-LLM. My prediction is that the price of LLM usage will slowly but consistently climb until it reaches the floor on LLM cost-to-suppliers. Right now we are all (myself included) being subsidised by VC money. When the supplier has to actually turn a profit, there's no moat that they can use to keep out newcomers, because the newcomers need only a fraction of the money spent by (for example OpenAI) in order to compete. Maybe Google has a moat, in that they have everything in-house, from the user-facing product to the tensor-processing hardware? That's as close to a moat that I can think off. |