[make3]

With the state of how the ai agents stuff already is, if you don't think that most tech jobs will be automated away in our lifetime, I don't what to tell you.

Within 10-15 years, AI research automates itself and no one ever has a software engineering job ever again.

I think sometimes of how crazy it would be if we could send GPT 4.5 in the past somehow, what effect that could have, just a magical almost all knowing being from the future

[fallingknife]

My 3 month old son is twice as big as he was when he was born. He's on track to weigh 7.5 trillion pounds by age 10!

[make3]

do you see meaningful reasons for it to not get there or are you just making a snarky comment

[fallingknife]

Computing power requirements and the fact that my subjective appraisal of the performance of these LLMs doesn't match the insane scaling curves that AI companies put out showing that their capabilities double every 6 months. Even if a 100x increase in computing power could equal a software engineer (and that's far from certain), that would be more expensive than a software engineer.

But really the burden of proof is on you here since you are making extraordinary claims of AI superintelligence replacing all jobs in 10-15 years. You are making the trillion pound baby argument, so you need to back it up.

[make3]

It's not, this isn't a lawsuit, it's a casual discussion, and I don't really care whether I'm convincing you or not, I'm taking about this because I enjoy it. I can tell you though that DeepSeek R1 & RL approaches do have shown the power to scale coding and reasoning much further without increasing model size or data requirements much, & that new improvements come non stop in the field from the billions being ingested and all the minds being focused on this all day long as it's so obvious to everyone that it's powerful

[bongodongobob]

I feel like you're coming from a place where GPTs value lies only in coding. I use it for planning all the time, saving me hours per week.

For example, the security team gave me a list of 100s of policies that need to be implemented. I was able to dump that list in and get a rollout plan over the next two months in a matter of minutes. This would easily have taken me half a day before GPT.