[steveBK123]

That's what I mean "only 5%" encapsulating all failure modes (comms/implementation/coordination/etc) is very low.

And that under-estimation compounds to make the top level 60% much higher than it should be.

A 7.5% rate takes top-level success odds below 50% - 46%. A not unrealistic 10% takes the top level down to 35%.

Etc.

[econ]

For extra fun we are doing more than one project in a row.