[Skylyz]

I feel like this begs for a careful analysis, we could probably drop a dozen more reasons as to why demand in devs and perhaps even in # of lines of code might plateau or decline in the near future, without even mentioning AI at any point.

[geodel]

I totally agree that there are whole host of reasons for this. One of them I think is plainly a ton of work which was novel and custom in past is now subsumed in base infrastructure of today's world. Despite big tech and other vendor keep pushing of new things lot of people and companies are finding base level acceptable for many tasks which would need custom work in past. So no growing demand custom software for everything.

We can already see for example as per Ericsson report[1] after exponential demand for mobile data and speed it is now plateauing and next decade will not see huge growth. As users are finding things they do and apps they use with phones are now fast/good enough.

1. https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-repo...