[tomku]

Indeed, that line of argument is a form of the Galileo gambit[1], which is just a way to rationalize ridicule or criticism by claiming an unfounded correlation between opposition and eventual victory. Yes, many people who eventually succeed are criticized or laughed at initially - but people who eventually fail are often criticized or laughed at initially as well.

[1]: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Galileo_gambit

[ralmeida]

The original reasoning can also be interpreted as an instance of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivor_bias