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by frankc
409 days ago
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The day to day of a software engineering job has changed and will change more depending on how advanced llms get (and all bets are off if we do get to AGI). However, I don't really think you will see a massive drop-off in employment for two reasons. First, competition is going away. If your developers are x times more productive, so are your competitors developers. I can see a bit less need in non-product companies if more domain experts are able to build their own tools, or generalized agentic tools eliminate some of the need for custom tooling. However, I think there is a second thing that is often overlooked here. It seems the angle is always 'oh companies can replace developers' but no one seems to consider that developers can replace companies. I think you are going to see small teams of very skilled people replace able to make amazing products. There are limits to what llm's can do on their own but a skilled engineer who masters the tooling and can unblock the models and knows the techniques to keep the models productive as the codebase grows will be able to produce amazing things far beyond what they could ever produce before. I think you are going to see an explosion of new, smaller companies. I think if you are an engineer you shouldn't be gloomy, you should be excited. |
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A LOT of new to be created firms will suddenly find they require programmers, developers, etc. Hence a lot of jobs.
We'll need a small level of improvement in the current crop of robots available, but not much.
I think the developer market is about to expand massively if tariffs are spreading (because that will force a lot of countries to move a lot of production back onshore, as goods are prevented or obstructed on the borders).
Of course, either I'm totally wrong or people haven't yet really realized they can do this, as it's not happening on the level I'm predicting ... yet.