[hayst4ck]

I watched it and I found him less convincing than Dalio's Principles of a changing world order, which I found to be extremely intuitive although not at all rigorous.

Ezra gave Rogoff a lot of push back and Rogoff came off as a guy who intuitively understands things but doesn't rigorously understand them so he looked kind of foolish multiple times. Rhetorically he was poor and if I hadn't already gone in agreeing with his general consensus, I would probably have been left fairly unconvinced. Of course, the curse of knowing a lot is that your knowledge of what you don't know is much larger than other people's knowledge so it's harder to confidently present things because you can think of exceptions or why they might not be true or how things could be much worse or much better than what seems most likely.

[adamwk]

Agreed, I left the episode thinking I didn’t take the right college courses to understand it. There were a lot of “proof is trivial” or “draw the rest of the owl” types of explanations

[mark_l_watson]

I find both Rogoff and Dalio interesting and useful. Useful because it is good to get my fellow Americans used to the ideas that US exceptionalism will slowly (hopefully slowly!) end and that a national debt much above 3% of GDP is a dangerous thing that will someday crush us economically unless some miracle happens and, for example, AI really does lead to hyper-productivity gains (I doubt this will happen, I guess I don’t listen to Sam Altman enough.)