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by dekhn 407 days ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
2 comments

It seems like it could have some utility in places where hyperloglog isn’t quite right. YouTube recommendations pointed me at a Numberphile video on this a couple weeks ago:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=WLCwMRJBhuI

An interesting corollary of this is that if you only have a single sample, it reduces to indicating that your sample is the median value - i.e. if you see one item with serial number N, you can guess that there were roughly 2N produced.
You do have outliers though. Seal Team 6 is actually Seal Team 1 but they wanted people to think they were outnumbered.