[intended]

No, the default outcome is not another attack.

This action guarantees another attack, because it has paid of in the actual PR dividends the ruling forces of both sides desired.

This has zip to do with the citizens, and everything to do with party / power bloc legitimacy.

Winning on economics and good governance is hard.

[SR2Z]

I can't even begin to understand this logic.

Why do you think Pakistan orchestrated the last attack? Do you think those reasons had anything to do with the expectation of retaliation from India?

The default is that Pakistan's motivations do not change and they keep doing what they've been doing. Ergo, another attack.

Yes this is stupid and worse for both sides, but it only takes one party to start a fight.

[intended]

I don’t think Pakistan orchestrated the last attack.

The structure was designed for being disavowed.

I expect it was more the army looked away, over condoned.

And yes, the expectations are to generate a response from the BJP.

By this rubric there are 4 actors on the stage.

- The people of Pakistan, the Pakistani army,

- The people of India, the BJP.

I’ve had this discussion with friends who are Pakistani and they concur that this makes the most sense.

The opinions of the Pakistani army have dramatically changed as per their interactions, having been at a nadir due to their domestic handling of events, and now these actions have reinvigorated public opinion.

The BJP has had its military credentials burnished.

I’d go a step deeper and suspect that there was a traditional response from India planned, and then at some point in the past 72 hours, a functionary on the BJP side raised the potential of a massive PR coup and the old guard got sidelined.

This has worked. This means this behavior will be repeated.

[SR2Z]

> The structure was designed for being disavowed.

> I expect it was more the army looked away, over condoned.

Right, in the exact same way they "looked away" while OBL lived half a mile away from the most prestigious military academy in Pakistan and the same way they "over condoned" the Taj hotel shootings. You are not disagreeing with me here.

> The opinions of the Pakistani army have dramatically changed as per their interactions, having been at a nadir due to their domestic handling of events, and now these actions have reinvigorated public opinion.

This line describes Hamas just as well as the Pakistani state, unfortunately.

> The BJP has had its military credentials burnished.

Indian media always has been and always will be jingoistic and no matter how the government responded, it would gleefully report on the power of the Indian military.

> This has worked. This means this behavior will be repeated.

WHO has this worked for? The BJP isn't more popular because of this. Pakistan hasn't achieved any strategic goals beyond the continuing destabilization of J&K - which is already well on the way to integration.