[lazide]

1) Pakistan is a lot less stable right now than 2019 (as is the world).

2) The putative organization is in Pakistan, and likely supported by the military.

The biggest threat India is doing (IMO) is threatening the water supply. That is getting everyone in Pakistan’s attention.

These strikes are more about managing the local political situation in India, which requires some degree of obvious violent retribution.

[enugu]

The incentives of the Pakistani generals to permit organizations like LeT to commit further terrorist attacks is a different domain from whatever the local political situation is like in India. There has been a past regime where Pakistani generals were able to train and send militants regularly to conduct terror attacks in India. Without an effective response from India putting pressure on these generals, that can easily become the new normal again.

[lazide]

Do you think (plausibly) threatening to cut off water to large swathes of Pakistan, or blowing up some random terrorist camps, is the bigger actual threat?

[enugu]

Cutting off water supply is clearly the bigger threat. However, it involves a longer time frame - building infrastructure which one expects not to use in a normal situation.

Importantly, even once built, it selects the wrong targets, not terrorists or military bases - but regular people who will be faced with scarcity of water and food, as the crops use Indus water. This would be something highly unethical, and also not something sustainable - once visuals of hunger start reaching screens across the world, the force to restart the supply would be strong.

[int_19h]

What force, though? Israel does something similar, and how much actual pushback (as opposed to sternly worded statements) did it actually get?

Even if it were to translate to sanctions, I'm not so sure BJP wouldn't welcome it. "The Fatherland is besieged, let's unite together around Dear Leader and fight back like one" tends to be a very popular take in authoritarian countries for a reason, and it's that much easier to pull off when you can actually point at some way in which your country is targeted.

[enugu]

Dont buy your description of India. Elections matter, BJP can and does lose many elections, India is dependent on oil from Gulf countries, it doesn't have US to shield it from actions which it shouldn't even be doing in the first place, there are much better options against Pakistan etc.

[lazide]

India is also buying oil from Russia - at a discount, or used to - because it is one of the few that could do so openly.

Attacking Pakistan over this also strengthens BJP’s hand and distracts everyone from the complaints that have been eroding their support, like ongoing corruption, high taxes with lower quality of life, etc. etc.

Don’t expect the gulf countries to come to Pakistan’s aid over this, especially if it comes to money. Muslim countries in general like to pretend to be friends, and they certainly talk a big game.

When it comes to actually doing anything though, they just use anything going on as a chance to stab each other in the back. Even when there is a chance for going after ‘the common enemy’ like Israel.

India hasn’t even been close to interesting to any of them since the Mughals. The minority Muslim population in India (about 20%) is also just a little less than Pakistans entire population, and almost half of the entire Middle East’s population, so it’s not like it would be a clean ‘attack the Hindu’s’ type situation anyway.

Also, Indians in general are not particularly warmongering, but this is about as righteous a cause as anyone has been able to come up with for awhile to ‘make someone pay’, is total rage bait for the hardliners/Hindutva contingent and is a good distraction for BJP.

As long as it doesn’t get too expensive, or look like it will escalate to Nuclear war, I’d expect it to go on awhile.

India in general loves to get all worked up about Pakistan (and to a lesser extent Bangladesh, though in that case it’s often about illegal immigrants).

It’s a trope like getting worked up about Cartels and/or ‘the illegals’ from down South in the US.

Source: westerner living in India for awhile now. मैं हिंदी नहीं बोल सकता, but I still get around eh?

[int_19h]

I'm not saying that India is full-on authoritarian today. But it's definitely edging in that direction under BJP, and I could see them embracing the war as their ultimate ticket to get there. I mean, if there is a shooting war with Pakistan, and they can credibly blame Pakistan for starting it, what will it do to BJP electoral standing?

As far as US, under Trump, I'd actually expect it to back Modi.

[rendang]

Can India build new aqueducts/pipelines to divert water from the headwaters they control? Dams only have finite capacity after all

[lazide]

Yes, albeit they would be susceptible to being shelled. With, uh, unpredictable but likely bad consequences if they happens.

[m0llusk]

"less stable" === yikes