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by sandspar 409 days ago
The Pakistan-India conflict is orthogonal to America and China's.
2 comments

> Pakistan-India conflict is orthogonal to America and China's

India is negotiating trade deals and weapons purchases with the West. (Historically, Moscow was its security source.) Pakistan got some F-16s in 2022, but otherwise has been deepending ties with Beijing. It's wild to suggest America's cold war with China is orthogonal to this conflict.

Ask a random Indian in India whether he'd be willing to die for the US. The US and China have interests in the area, so maybe I shouldn't have said the word "orthogonal". But the original commenter said a conflict between India and Pakistan would be a "US-China proxy war". Come on. India and Pakistan have enough reasons to hate each other. They don't need America or China's goading. And neither India nor Pakistan would accept their conflict being characterized as a US-China war.
> Ask a random Indian in India whether he'd be willing to die for the US

Not how proxy wars work.

> India and Pakistan have enough reasons to hate each other. They don't need America or China's goading

Not how proxy wars work. The backers enable. The proxies fight.

> neither India nor Pakistan would accept their conflict being characterized as a US-China war

This is how proxy wars work. They literally don’t if the proxies realise they’re fighting a foreign war on their homeland.

>This is how proxy wars work. They literally don’t if the proxies realise they’re fighting a foreign war on their homeland.

India and pakistan have contested boundaries and their hostilities doesn't depend on foreign powers. Interestingly, when the hostilities between china and india flared up in 2021, and india moved many divisions from its pakistan border to its chinese border, pakistan didn't change its posturing to put pressure on india. This was acknowledged by indian army during a press briefing. Both so far have never fought against each other for foreign powers, but have fought against each other for their own reasons. So no proxy wars so far.

> India and pakistan have contested boundaries and their hostilities doesn't depend on foreign powers

Yes? That’s what lends it proxy war potential. An endemic war. Like, there were actual conflicts in e.g. Vietnam and Afghanistan before they became proxy wars. Those same risk factors are present today.

It’s not a proxy war. Not every world event is about the US.

Source: I am an Indian.

> It’s not a proxy war. Not every world event is about the US

Nobody said as much. The original comment described how this can escalate.

It is useful for the US to isolate China from Iranian oil resources. Currently Iranian oil can go via Pakistan to China.

Thats how Us operates: exploits old conflicts for its own immediate benefit, like it did with Ukr-Rus war.

If some people die on both side it is acceptable for the Us, because these are not Us citizens dying

CPEC isn't viable energy coordidor yet - no completed oil/gas infra from Iran to Pak to PRC. Which only leaves trucks, and the roads not designed to support 5000+ trucks per day for Irans 1m barrels per day.
> Thats how Us operates: exploits old conflicts for its own immediate benefit, like it did with Ukr-Rus war.

This is realpolitik 101, and every powerful society does it. Like, India didn't help sever Bangladesh f/k/a East Pakistan from Islamabad because it was being nice. (I'm not saying every society exploits every old conflict. Just that if you need to do something, you start with extant fault lines. Like, if you're going to war with Nazi Germany you don't sideline the Soviets and British because that's mean or whatnot.)

Also, the problem with Pakistan isn't that its ports could be used to import oil. It's that the ports are being configured for Chinese blue-water operations.

I can understand seizing opportunities in situations like this, however I cannot support instigating and creating these situations in the first place.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/pakistans-defence-m...

> cannot support instigating and creating these situations in the first place

With all due respect, what you and I support isn’t super relevant to what will happen over the coming weeks.

It doesn't matter what it is, or where it's happening in the world, some people will always make it about the US. Always. It's tiresome.
The US is the third largest country on the planet with the second largest nuclear arsenal and controls the currency that other countries denominate their international debt in.

There's very little that happens in the world that does not touch or get touched by the United States. The USA doesn't have much choice in this.