[mtrovo]

Not sure if Google+ is a good analogy, it reminds me more of the Netscape vs IE fight. Netscape sprinted like it was going to dominate the early internet era and it worked until Microsoft bundled IE with Windows for free.

LLMs themselves aren't the moat, product integration is. Google, Apple and Microsoft already have the huge user bases and platforms with a big surface area covering a good chunk of our daily life, that's why I think they're better positioned if models become a commodity. OpenAI has the lead now, but distribution is way more powerful in the long run.