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by Nevermark 404 days ago
19 out of 20 could easily mean they get 119 right out of every 120 “almost certainties” and they just rolled a 1 on a die 6 for the “luck” component.

One off, 1 out of N errors are really hard to interpret, even with clear objective standards.

And emphasizes why mapping regular language to objective meanings is a necessity for anything serious, but can still lead to problematic interactions.

Probability assessments are will almost always sometimes certainly could be considered likely hard!

1 comments

I think the parent was suggesting a much higher percentage for “almost certain”… like >99.9%